[SMM Nickel Midday Comment] On July 1, nickel prices continued to fall under pressure, and interest rate futures showed that the probability of the US Fed raising rates in September rose to 80%.

Published: Jul 1, 2026 11:37

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SMM Nickel July 1 Daily Report:

Macro and Market News:

(1) US Fed's Hammack: Inflation remains too high and a rate hike may need to be considered; interest rate futures show the probability of a US Fed September rate hike has risen to 80%.

(2) Middle East situation—① Iranian Foreign Ministry: "has basically no plan to hold any level of meeting with the US side" in the coming days. Talks with mediator Qatar on implementing the US-Iran agreement may be held in Doha on July 1, with topics including the release of unfrozen assets.

Spot market:

On July 1, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,950 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands was -400 to 400 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged in early trading before recovering slightly, and stood at 125,600 yuan/mt by the morning close, down 0.61%.

A stronger US dollar and market expectations shifting toward a "hawkish" Fed policy kept the macro environment challenging, and markets focused on this week's US ADP and non-farm payrolls data, with nickel prices expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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