Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,485/mt. In early trading, LME zinc moved sideways around the daily average, during which it edged down to $3,466.5/mt. Then the price rose steadily, touching a high of $3,558/mt during the session. In late trading, it slightly narrowed gains and consolidated at highs, finally closing up at $3,551.5/mt, up $64.5/mt or 1.85%. Trading volume increased to 111,000 lots, and open interest added 1,117 lots to 263,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,460 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price edged up but then drifted lower, touching a low of 24,420 yuan/mt. Afterwards, bulls added positions, lifting the price to touch a high of 24,620 yuan/mt. In late trading, bulls reduced positions and upward momentum was insufficient. The contract finally closed up at 24,585 yuan/mt, up 235 yuan/mt or 0.97%. Trading volume decreased to 59,930 lots, and open interest added 3,478 lots to 98,932 lots.
Macro: Trump's 927-page financial report revealing over $1 billion in fundraising was disclosed. US Fed's Hammack: Inflation is still too high, and a rate hike may need to be considered. Japan stated that it did not intervene in the currency market between April 28 and May 27. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I would not be surprised if the June employment data is very strong. MIIT official: Intensify research on materials such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory.
Spot:
Shanghai: Yesterday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Shanghai was 2.04, and the selling sentiment was 2.58. In the morning, zinc prices consolidated at lows on the futures market. Downstream enterprises remained on the sidelines, with limited point-price purchases overall. Spot trades were sluggish, and traders were casual in offering quotes. Spot premiums were basically unchanged.
Guangdong: Yesterday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Guangdong was 2, and the selling sentiment was 2.3. Futures pulled back, but current prices remain at high levels overall. Coupled with the continuous arrival of previously point-priced cargoes and long-term contract supplies, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Purchasing demand was sluggish overall, and actual market shipments were poor. Due to demand, the room for negotiation on spot premiums widened.
Tianjin: Yesterday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Tianjin was 2.01, and the selling sentiment was 2.53. The futures edged down, but downstream enterprises were still slowly picking up previously point-priced zinc ingots. Inquiries were few, and purchases were mainly for restocking. Traders' offer premiums held steady, and overall market trading was mediocre.
Ningbo: Trader quotes in the Ningbo market were basically stable, with overall premiums little changed from the previous day. Downstream enterprises had sufficient raw material inventories, so their willingness to inquire and purchase was low yesterday. Overall spot trading was poor.
Inventory: On June 30, LME inventory decreased by 700 mt to 119,825 mt, a decline of 0.58%;; According to SMM, as of June 29, China's inventory fell by 6,600 mt to 269,300 mt.
Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a large bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support. The US dollar index rose first then fell, while inventories outside China continued to decline, and the center of LME zinc edged up slightly. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support beneath it, while the middle band exerted pressure. Currently, domestic TCs are relatively low, and China's zinc ingot production in July is expected to continue to decline, supporting SHFE zinc to edge up, but end-use consumption limits the price increase.
Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
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