SMM, June 30:
According to SMM statistics, total aluminum production outside China in June 2026 fell 8.7% YoY, mainly due to earlier large-scale production cuts at aluminum smelters in the Middle East. Daily average production outside China rebounded 1.9% MoM, driven by production resumptions at smelters in the US and Iceland, as well as the production ramp-up of Indonesian projects and newly energized capacity.
Looking ahead to July 2026, production resumptions at smelters in the US and Iceland are expected to continue advancing. Backed by high prices, more Indonesian aluminum projects are expected to be energized and start production, while earlier-commissioned new projects are expected to continue ramping up. The expanded capacity at India’s Balco is also expected to sustain its production ramp-up. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, with no further signs of deterioration. If the situation stabilizes gradually, the aluminum capacity in the region that has been cut or suspended is expected to begin resuming production step by step. Overall, in the near term, aluminum production outside China is expected to remain in negative YoY growth. As production resumptions and new ramp-ups continue, daily average aluminum production is expected to maintain positive growth. Going forward, announcements from aluminum smelters in the Middle East, Indonesia, and India will warrant close monitoring.
![In June, the increase in the proportion of liquid aluminum in aluminum production exceeded expectations, and it is expected to edge up in July [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/hRRxy20251217171652.jpg)
