Bullish and bearish factors interweave and SHFE tin maintains wild swings, while downstream enterprises' purchase willingness is currently weak [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Published: Jun 30, 2026 12:30

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwine, SHFE Tin Maintains Wild Swings; Downstream Enterprises’ Current Purchase Willingness Is Weak]

Tin Midday Comment on June 30, 2026

The tin market in and outside China swung wildly today. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 394,500 yuan/mt and closed at 388,870 yuan/mt in the morning, up 0.02%. On the LME, the three-month tin contract was last at $50,570/mt, up 0.44%.

On the macro front:

(1) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released PMI data on June 30: The manufacturing PMI for June was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, returning to expansion territory. The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index came in at 50.2% and 50.6%, respectively, both up 0.1 percentage points MoM, indicating a marginal rebound in China's overall economic sentiment.

(2) US officials and Trump stated that the US and Iran had reached a temporary ceasefire agreement and planned to hold talks in Doha, Qatar on Tuesday, June 30, to negotiate the dispute over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry and Deputy Foreign Minister publicly denied this, clarifying that there were no plans for negotiations with the US in the coming days. On Monday, Iranian officials reiterated that Iran has the dominant control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Spot side, overall inquiries and transactions in the morning were moderate. Downstream enterprises maintained the pace of purchasing on demand and only released some phased restocking demand when prices showed clear pullbacks.

Overall, the Middle East situation has once again fallen into a back-and-forth of conflicting statements from the US and Iran, and the market's reaction to such war of words has shown some marginal desensitization. Currently, macro sentiment is guided by key economic data to gauge the actual inflation path and monetary policy direction. If the geopolitical agreement sees no material breakthrough going forward, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain in a pattern of wild swings in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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