Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Remain Under Pressure amid Weak Month-End Consumption [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM June 30:

In early morning trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 102,250 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it moved down quickly, hitting a low of 101,870 yuan/mt, before rising sharply to 102,310 yuan/mt. It then edged down slightly, fluctuating mainly within the 102,000–102,280 yuan/mt range. Subsequently, prices stabilized and rose sharply, touching a high of 102,620 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 102,530 yuan/mt. The inter-month contango spread was between 60 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt. SHFE copper's import profit margin against the 2607 contract for current-month delivery ranged from a loss of 440 yuan/mt to a loss of 310 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 2.62, down 0.03 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.49, down 0.09 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Early in the morning session, market shipments were limited. Suppliers' first-round quotes for standard-quality copper ranged from discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 10 yuan/mt, with Lufang and others quoting cargoes with invoices dated this month at a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Tongguan and Jinfeng quoted EXW parity for cargoes with invoices dated this month. Tiefeng, Zijin, Honglu, Dajiang HS, and others quoted cargoes with invoices dated next month at discounts of 30–20 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the market stabilized, with offerings increasing slightly. Zhongtiaoshan and Honglu offered discounts of 30 yuan/mt. High-quality copper from Guixi and Jintun large plate was quoted at premiums of 40–60 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper BMK was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated next month. Entering the second session, trading was thin on both sides. Suppliers slightly lowered their offers, with Dajiang HS and Tiefeng quoting discounts of 40 yuan/mt, while other prices remained largely unchanged. Non-registered copper was traded at discounts of around 180 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, today marked the last trading day of the month. Downstream procurement sentiment continued to weaken, and consumption remained sluggish. After suppliers slightly lowered their offers, transactions stayed sluggish, with overall market trading thin on both sides. However, some cargoes with current-month invoices still managed to find transactions due to note-related demand, indicating structural demand support. As the new monthly procurement cycle begins, combined with copper prices being at relatively low levels, downstream restocking demand may emerge, and consumption is expected to recover marginally. At that time, procurement and sales sentiment may be boosted, and spot discounts may gradually narrow.