US-Iran Talks Repeatedly Disrupt Market, Copper Prices Retreat After Rapid Rise, Staying in the Doldrums[SMM Copper Morning Briefing]

Tue, Jun 30, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,341/mt, initially drifting higher to touch $13,379/mt, then the center of copper prices drifted lower to $13,252.5/mt, before consolidating higher again to finally settle at $13,344.5/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 14,200 lots, and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, down 256 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,710 yuan/mt, initially rising to 102,850 yuan/mt, then the price center moved lower to touch 102,100 yuan/mt, before drifting higher to finally settle at 102,340 yuan/mt, down 0.79%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest stood at 152,000 lots, down 1,906 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] On the news front:
(1) The Swedish government has granted a 25-year mining lease to Leading Edge Materials (TSXV: LEM) for what the company describes as one of Europe's most significant rare earth deposits. The Canadian critical minerals explorer said in a statement on Monday that its Norra Kärr project in southern Sweden has received an extraction concession, following a formal recommendation by the Swedish Mining Inspectorate to support the project's development. According to Leading Edge, a decisive factor in the government's decision was the project's strategic importance for Sweden and the EU, citing a previous study by the Geological Survey of Sweden which confirmed Norra Kärr as one of the richest rare earth deposits in Europe. The report specifically noted that the project has a particularly high proportion of so-called "heavy rare earths" — including terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium — all of which are critical raw materials for producing permanent magnets used extensively in EVs, wind turbines, and other advanced technologies, including national defense applications.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 29, the SHFE copper 2607 contract opened low and then stabilized before gradually climbing. Opening at 102,460 yuan/mt, the price edged down to 102,220 yuan/mt, then consolidated between 102,310 yuan/mt and 102,490 yuan/mt, followed by a slight decline to touch an intraday low of 102,200 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, the price gradually rose to close at 102,880 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contract ranged from 70 to 20 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for spot copper against the SHFE 2607 contract stood at a loss from 480 to 390 yuan/mt. Looking ahead today, on the inventory front, SMM data showed that social inventory in Shanghai was recorded at 134,200 mt, down 4,100 mt from last Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 41,200 mt, down 900 mt. Despite some imported cargoes arriving at ports, overall warehouse withdrawals were robust last week, and inventory continued a moderate destocking trend, providing some support for spot discounts. From the perspective of supplier behavior, month-end shipment pressure has largely been released, and market deliveries returned to normal pace. Offers from suppliers were relatively stable during the day, with no signs of significant markdowns, and some suppliers held a positive outlook on future premiums, showing stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Regarding invoice structure, cargoes with invoices dated this month remained relatively tight, maintaining a certain price spread against cargoes with invoices dated next month. In summary, with the end of month-end destocking, inventory drawdowns, and supplier’s willingness to hold prices firm, the center of spot discounts for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract is expected to shift slightly higher tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On June 29, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,320 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, approaching the mid-year settlement, suppliers actively lowered prices to sell, and spot trades were sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On June 29, the average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $68/mt (price range $64-72/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $69/mt (price range $64-74/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) gained $3/mt from the previous trading day to $41/mt (price range $37-45/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 29, the closing price at 11:30 was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 1,540 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums averaged 0 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price of copper scrap rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.37, and the purchase sentiment index rose to 2.42. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,930 yuan/mt, up 1,321 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 470 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices rebounded, and both copper scrap suppliers and secondary copper enterprises showed active buying and selling sentiment. The widening of the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap also indicated that supply in the copper scrap market had increased. During the day, the copper scrap market was relatively active.
Prices: On the macro front, on June 29, the US Supreme Court ruled that the removal of Fed Governor Cook could not proceed pending resolution of related litigation, sparking policy and authority discussions. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and US-Iran negotiation reports repeatedly disturbed the market: Iran stated it had no plan for short-term talks with the US and controlled the strait, but subsequently confirmed it would meet on Tuesday in Doha, pulling sentiment and driving copper prices to retreat after a rapid rise. On the fundamentals side, supply-side shipments returned to normal, low-priced cargoes shrank, and cargoes with invoices dated this month were tight, keeping overall supply relatively tight. Higher prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, the market was shrouded in a wait-and-see sentiment, and demand performance was weak. In terms of inventories, as of Monday, June 29, according to SMM data, copper inventories in major regions of China had destocked by 700 mt from the previous Monday, and increased by 1,400 mt from last Thursday, bringing total inventories to 207,400 mt, which was 81,300 mt higher than the 126,100 mt recorded a year earlier. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain in the doldrums today.
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