Futures: . Trading volume decreased to 94,136 lots, while open interest increased by 236 lots to 261,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,330 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 24,360 yuan/mt in early trading, then fell rapidly as bulls reduced positions, hitting a low of 24,205 yuan/mt. The price consolidated during the session, stabilized and edged up slightly near the close, and finally settled at 24,290 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt, or 0.74%. Trading volume decreased to 56,884 lots, and open interest fell by 2,677 lots to 99,375 lots.
Macro: The US Supreme Court blocked Trump from firing Fed Governor Cook; Trump: Will take immediate action on Fed Governor Cook's qualifications; Iran: Current focus is on implementing the memorandum of understanding, no talks with the US in the near term; China and the EU confirmed the formal establishment of a China-EU trade and investment consultation mechanism; Chinese air conditioners sell out in Europe, Midea's sales double, Gree completely sold out; Concentrated price adjustments starting July 1, nearly 20 semiconductor companies initiate a new wave of price hikes.
Spot: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,493.5/mt, edged lower initially, then fluctuated and surged to a high of $3,525/mt. Subsequently, the market pulled back quickly. During the European trading session, the price dipped to $3,445/mt and then consolidated at lows. It rose slightly near the close, and finally settled at $3,487/mt, down $13/mt, or 0.37%.
Shanghai: Today, Shanghai's refined zinc purchase sentiment was 2.08 and shipment sentiment was 2.57. The zinc price on the futures market rose back above 24,000 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises had purchased actively last week, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment today. Overall spot trades were sluggish, with traders taking a laid-back approach to offering shipments, and overall spot premiums remained relatively firm.
Guangdong: Today, Guangdong's refined zinc purchase sentiment was 2.00 and sales sentiment was 2.25. The futures center moved upward. Some traders had limited spot cargoes, so market offers remained relatively firm. Downstream fear of high prices emerged, and purchase willingness was low, with most activity focused on lifting previously priced cargoes. Overall market demand was sluggish.
Tianjin: Today, Tianjin's refined zinc purchase sentiment was 2.15 and shipment sentiment was 2.61. The futures market rebounded today. Downstream previously priced orders were mostly completed, so there were fewer inquiries today. Traders' shipment premiums remained stable, and overall market trading weakened.
Ningbo: Today, traders' zinc ingot premium offers were basically stable, but the zinc price on the futures market rebounded. Additionally, downstream enterprises had purchased actively at low prices last week, so their current in-plant inventories are mostly ample. Today, downstream enterprises' willingness to inquire and purchase was poor, and spot trades were sluggish.
Inventory: On June 29, LME zinc inventory decreased by 775 mt to 120,525 mt, a decline of 0.64%. According to SMM, as of June 29, domestic inventory decreased by 6,600 mt to 269,300 mt.
Zinc price forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support below. US-Iran tensions heated up again, and market inflation concerns intensified, boosting interest rate hike expectations, causing the center of LME zinc to pull back. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bearish candlestick, with the 10- and 60-day moving averages above exerting pressure and the 5-day moving average below providing support. Overnight, SHFE zinc was influenced by the external market, with its center moving lower. Although social inventory saw a slight destocking, it remained overall at a high level. Coupled with notably weak end-use consumption during the off-season, resistance persists above the price.
Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only. They do not constitute any decision-making advice.
![Affected by LME, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick [SMM zinc morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nlmjY20251217171755.jpg)
