[SMM Nickel Flash News] Nickel Market Flash: Volatile June Ends with Focus on July RKAB Decision

Published: Jun 29, 2026 12:43

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In June 2026, the nickel market remained highly volatile, with market sentiment primarily influenced by Indonesia's RKAB quota policy. The nickel market remained highly volatile in June 2026, with sentiment dominated by Indonesia's RKAB policy. Initial optimism over a lower 2026 mining quota of 260–270 million wmt supported prices on concerns of ore shortages, but speculation of a potential quota increase from July later triggered a sharp sell-off in LME nickel. Indonesian smelters continued to face tight ore supply and weak stainless-steel demand. Looking ahead, the lower July HMA is expected to weigh on domestic ore prices, with physical premiums likely to decrease by approximately US$2–3/t from June levels. However, the market outlook will ultimately depend on the government's decision regarding RKAB revisions and the resulting supply conditions.

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