Metals broadly advanced, with lithium carbonate, SHFE zinc, and coking coal up over 2%, and platinum, palladium, SHFE silver, SHFE tin, and SHFE copper leading the gains [SMM Midday Review]

SMM June 29 news:

Metal markets:

As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market saw nearly broad gains. SHFE copper rose 1.11%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE zinc gained 2.01%, SHFE tin increased 1.19%, and SHFE nickel inched up 0.1%.

In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 1.08%, the most-traded alumina contract added 0.86%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract jumped 2.27%, the most-traded silicon metal contract ticked up 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.59%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore added 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel inched up 0.03%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract jumped 2.25%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.32%.

In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.29%, LME aluminum fell 0.44%, LME lead added 0.24%, LME zinc dipped 0.1%, LME tin fell 0.18%, and LME nickel inched up.

In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 1.23%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.22%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 2.77%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 3.78%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight index futures contract ticked up 0.19% to 3,715 points.

Selected futures midday prices as of 11:43 on June 29:

Spot Market and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...

Macro Front

China:

[Ministry of Commerce Adds 20 Japanese Entities to Export Control List] Ministry of Commerce: To safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to add 20 Japanese entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies, which are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities, to the export control list. First, the export of dual-use items to the above 20 entities by operators is prohibited, and overseas organizations and individuals are prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in the People's Republic of China to the above 20 entities; ongoing related activities must be immediately ceased. II. In special circumstances where export is genuinely necessary, the export operator shall submit an application to the Ministry of Commerce.

[China’s Highest-Latitude Solar Thermal Power Station Begins Operation] Today (June 29), northeast China’s first solar thermal power station—the CGN Jixi Base 100,000 kW solar thermal power station in Da’an City, Jilin Province—commenced operation, marking a new breakthrough in the application of solar thermal power technology in high-latitude frigid regions of China. Located at 45.36 degrees north latitude in a frigid climate zone, the station is China’s highest-latitude solar thermal power station, with an installed capacity of 100,000 kW, heat storage duration of up to 8 hours, and the capability for safe, stable, and continuous 24-hour operation. This type of station primarily uses large arrays of mirrors to focus sunlight onto a heat collection device, thereby achieving energy storage. (CCTV News)

The PBOC conducted 157.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. 476.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. Meanwhile, the PBOC conducted 300 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations.

Regarding the US dollar:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 101.33. According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 30.5%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 40.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 12.8%. (Jinshi Data APP)

Gavekal Research noted in a report: “In 2025, markets widely feared that Trump would undermine the independence of US monetary policy, nominate a political puppet as Fed Chairman, force the Fed to cut interest rates, and cause inflation to consistently exceed the Fed’s 2% target.” “Developments over the past seven months have made such a scenario unlikely.” These developments include the appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed and the reappointment of 11 of the 12 regional Fed presidents. At the first meeting chaired by Warsh earlier this month, the Fed underscored its commitment to price stability, surprising some market participants who had expected a more dovish stance under the new chairman. (Jinshi Data APP)

According to “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos, people familiar with the matter disclosed that the selection process for the new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. An initial list of candidates failed to produce a final choice, forcing the bank to restart a selection process that had already lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a procedural hiccup. Yet at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. The presidents of the various Federal Reserve Banks are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to be insulated from the political maneuvering in Washington. (Jin10 Data App)

On the data front:

Data set for release today includes the Eurozone June Industrial Confidence Index, the Eurozone June Economic Confidence Index, and the US June Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, among others. Also to watch: the European Central Bank's Global Central Banking Forum in Sintra, running through July 1; and the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference, taking place from June 29 to 30.

In the crude oil market:

As of 11:43, oil prices had risen on both sides of the Atlantic, with WTI crude up 1.14% and Brent crude up 0.87%. Renewed military clashes between the US and Iran over the weekend halted negotiations and reignited supply risk concerns in the Strait of Hormuz, supporting oil prices.

A senior US official revealed on June 28 that the two sides had agreed to stop attacking each other and planned to meet in Doha, Qatar's capital, on June 30 to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, a CCTV reporter learned. As of yet, neither the US, Iran, nor mediators Pakistan and Qatar have made any formal statements. (Wall Street Insights)

A report released on Friday by energy services firm Baker Hughes showed US energy companies added the highest number of new drilling rigs in a single week since June 2022. The total oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future production, rose by 10 in the week ending June 29, marking the largest single-week increase in four years. The total count reached 573, the highest level since May 2025. This week’s increase brought the total rig count up by 26, or 5%, compared to the same period last year, Baker Hughes stated. The company reported that oil rigs rose by 7 to 440, their highest level since June 2025. Natural gas rigs increased by 3 to 125, while miscellaneous rigs held steady at 8. (Jin10 Data App)

Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that vehicle owners and various enterprises continue to face fuel supply challenges, with widespread queues seen at gas stations nationwide. Affected by the shutdown of multiple refineries, Russia is introducing measures to stabilize its domestic market. Putin confirmed a full ban on diesel exports is one of the options currently under review. Following a Friday meeting between the Energy Ministry, oil producers, and government departments, the ministry did not recommend implementing a diesel export ban for the time being, citing concerns it could cause derivative issues such as diesel inventory buildup; the government will reassess the market situation on Monday. Jin10 Data APP)

Spot Market Roundup:

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