US-Iran ceasefire eased rate hike concerns, copper prices gained support and drifted higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Monday, June 29, 2026
Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,269.5/mt, dipped during wild swings early in the session to $13,250/mt, then the price center drifted higher toward the close, reaching a high of $13,378/mt, and finally settled at $13,322/mt, up 0.05%, with trading volume at 19,100 lots and open interest at 247,000 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from the prior trading day, reflecting bear position unwinding. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,240 yuan/mt, fell to 102,020 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center moved steadily higher toward the close, hitting a high of 102,930 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 102,740 yuan/mt, up 1.16%, with trading volume at 42,000 lots and open interest at 156,000 lots, a decrease of 3,193 lots from the prior trading day, reflecting bear position unwinding.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) On Wednesday, June 24, NexMetals Mining said its Selkirk copper-nickel-PGM project’s resource had grown nearly 70% and could now become a “significant contributor” to its Botswana-focused growth strategy. In a resource update released Wednesday, the Toronto-based miner said breakthroughs from re-assaying and twin-hole drilling led to a grade upgrade for a large portion of inferred resources, with indicated resources now at about 1.1 billion lb copper equivalent at an average 0.66% CuEq on 78.2 million mt of ore. Following the upgrade, the project retained inferred resources of 15.1 million mt at an average 0.60% CuEq for 200 million lb CuEq.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On June 26, the SHFE copper 2607 contract drifted lower in early trading. It opened at 102,090 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly to 101,770 yuan/mt, then stabilized and rebounded, touching a high of 102,100 yuan/mt, before drifting lower to a low of 101,190 yuan/mt, and then rebounding modestly before the close to settle at 101,340 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts ranged from a Contango of 50 yuan/mt to a Backwardation of 10 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper 2607 contract import profit margin ranged from a loss of 210 yuan/mt to a loss of 160 yuan/mt. Looking ahead today, the supply-demand structure is expected to show marginal changes: on one hand, some traders have restocking needs after overselling earlier, and demand for cargoes with invoices dated this month is being concentrated and released, quickly absorbing available low-priced supply, which should keep market available spot supply tight; on the other hand, market sentiment shows that with copper prices at relatively low levels, suppliers generally hold a positive outlook for spot premiums ahead and have low willingness to sell at low prices, providing support for spot premiums. Taken together, Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2607 contract is expected to remain at a discount today, with the discount likely to narrow slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On June 26, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were: high-quality copper quoted at 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,785 yuan/mt, up 645 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,695 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory rose for the sixth consecutive day, consumption was sluggish, spot premiums trended lower, and overall trading was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On June 26, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $67/mt (price range: $62-72/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $69/mt (price range: $64-74/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) was flat from the previous trading day at $38/mt (price range: $35-41/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving in the first half of July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 26, at 11:30 AM, the futures closing price was 101,340 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums and discounts stood at -5 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The sales sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials was unchanged at 2.30, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.37. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stood at 609 yuan/mt, down 263 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 300 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices rebounded without momentum, secondary copper raw material suppliers maintained a wait-and-see stance, and secondary copper raw material prices remained firm. Given the tight supply, quotations even rose against the trend. Downstream secondary copper rod enterprises found copper rod prices too high due to elevated raw material costs, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and very limited market transactions.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Fed is expected to deliver one rate hike in 2026 and leave rates unchanged in 2027, easing market concerns over rate hikes. In the Middle East, the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire and planned to meet on Tuesday to discuss the Strait dispute. Although Iran did not attend the negotiations on the 28th, subsequent talks are still planned. Iran’s Foreign Minister warned that the Strait would be under Iran’s control within 30 days and interference would lead to delays. Easing rate hike concerns and Middle East uncertainties together supported copper prices’ rise. On the fundamental side, supply side, available low-priced cargoes decreased, suppliers held back from selling, and overall supply remained tight. Demand side, as copper prices drifted higher, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and demand was weak. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment or research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]