Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,434.5/mt, dipped to $3,387/mt in early trading, then shorts covered, driving a continuous rebound. The price steadily rose above the daily moving average, and surged to $3,503.5/mt in late trading, finally closing up at $3,500/mt, gaining $62/mt or 1.80%. Trading volume rose to 106,000 lots, and open interest fell by 297 lots to 261,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,005 yuan/mt, moved sideways around the daily moving average initially, edged down to 23,940 yuan/mt, then shorts covered, lifting prices continuously. SHFE zinc steadily climbed above the daily moving average and reached a high of 24,420 yuan/mt. In late trading, it consolidated slightly at high levels, finally closing up at 24,400 yuan/mt, up 455 yuan/mt, or 1.90%. Trading volume rose to 76,557 lots, and open interest fell by 2,028 lots to 108,000 lots.
Spot: US media: US and Iran agreed to stop mutual attacks and would meet in Qatar on Tuesday; Putin: Russia suggested that both Ukraine and Russia stop attacking each other's deep territory targets; Fed Chairman Warsh appointed two senior central bank economists as advisors; Nasdaq: SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, 2026; the total investment scale of key energy projects and new business models during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will exceed 20 trillion yuan; National Energy Administration: in the future, western regions will export products and Tokens; Tianfu Communication: the shortage of some material supplies will gradually ease from H2; national subsidies continue! The third batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds has been allocated.
Spot:
Shanghai: Last Friday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Shanghai was 2.34, and the shipment sentiment was 2.83. In the morning, zinc ingot prices continued to decline, and some downstream enterprises continued to fix prices for cargo purchases. Overall trading in Shanghai was moderate, with traders actively offering to sell, and spot premiums for zinc ingot continued to rise.
Guangdong: Last Friday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Guangdong was 2.32, and the sales sentiment was 2.43. Zinc prices continued to fall, with traders maintaining premium offers. Some end-users still engaged in certain dip-buying activities, supporting a further increase in spot premiums.
Tianjin: Last Friday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Tianjin was 2.30, and the shipment sentiment was 2.63. Futures prices continued to pull back slightly. The earlier price fixings by downstream enterprises were largely completed, leading to a weakening in market trading sentiment. Downstream enterprises were slowly picking up goods, while traders slightly raised their shipment premiums. Overall market transactions remained moderate.
Ningbo: Last Friday, traders continued to raise spot offers. Zinc prices on the futures market continued to fall in the morning, and some downstream enterprises continued to purchase at low prices. Overall spot trading was active, and premiums for zinc ingot edged up slightly.
Inventory: On June 26, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,100 mt to 121,300 mt, a decline of 0.90%; According to SMM communication, as of June 25, China inventory increased by 700 mt to 275,900 mt.
Zinc Price Forecast: Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with support from the 10/60-day moving averages below. PCE data met expectations and oil prices pulled back, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled slightly, the US dollar index declined, and the LME zinc center rose. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with resistance from the 10/40-day moving averages above. Currently, domestic zinc ingot inventory remains at high levels, coupled with seasonal weakening in end-use consumption, the weak fundamentals are exerting downward pressure on SHFE zinc prices. However, ore-side TCs have been lingering at low levels, still providing some support for zinc prices. Amid intertwining bullish and bearish factors, SHFE zinc is expected to move sideways in the short term.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision advice.
