Daily Commentary on Tin – June 26, 2026
On the 26th, tin markets both in and outside China saw a V-shaped reversal after exploring deep lows. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 393,800 yuan/mt in the night session, then drifted lower and stagnated near 387,000 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened this morning, futures prices slid further, briefly dipping below the 374,500 yuan/mt level intraday before being stopped by spot buying. Bulls, together with some bear short-covering, pushed a rebound, and the contract closed at 387,720 yuan/mt in the afternoon, bucking the intraday trend to gain 0.59%. Overseas, the LME three-month tin price moved in tandem, currently trading at $50,355/mt, up 0.41%.
On the macro front:
(1) The US reported a PCE reading of 4.1% YoY for May, its highest level since April 2023, while core PCE rose 3.4% YoY, both meeting expectations. Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 2.1% from the initial 1.6% estimate.
(2) China's Ministry of Commerce updated on the latest progress in Sino-US trade consultations: the two sides agreed to establish a trade council and will discuss cooperation, including reciprocal tariff reductions, under this framework.
On the spot side, as futures prices plunged sharply to around 376,000 yuan/mt this afternoon, downstream and end-user enterprises entered the market to buy the dip, creating a relatively active overall trading atmosphere. Looking at the trading pace this week, the stocking demand from downstream enterprises and prior backlog orders showed a clear pattern of being "released in batches." When futures pulled back to the range between 390,000 yuan/mt and 380,000 yuan/mt early in the week, the market had already fulfilled one round of orders and restocking demand; today's rapid intraday decline then triggered a second round of dip-buying interest.
On the whole, tin prices went through an extremely sharp round of catch-down liquidation this week. The core narrative driving weekly price action was hijacked by macro sentiment: on the one hand, hawkish remarks from the new US Fed chair stirred expectations of a rate hike this year, while sticky US May PCE data and an upward revision in Q1 GDP further confirmed the "exceptionalism" of economic fundamentals. This was amplified by a continued strengthening of the US dollar index, which broke through the 101 mark, subjecting the base metals complex to systemic high-pressure de-rating. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East underwent dramatic twists and turns throughout the week – "offline signing canceled → remote signing of a memorandum brought a brief thaw → a renewed strait blockade after agreement fell apart → technical consultations in Switzerland restarted with a 60-day waiver secured." Market expectations for oil prices and inflation remained cautious and leaned pessimistic given the prevailing uncertainty.
Although macro-level tightening will continue to cap topside prices for metals, the unresolved supply tightness in tin ore provides fundamental bottom-side support, which, together with the absorption capacity of China's domestic spot market around the 375,000–380,000 yuan/mt range, jointly form a floor for prices. Tin may thus enter a window of post-decline repair. In the near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to swing wildly, primarily within the 380,000–390,000 yuan/mt range.
![After three consecutive declines, the US dollar pulls back slightly, as SHFE tin tests the 380,000 support, ushering in a repair window [SMM Tin Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/iLVGs20251217171753.jpg)
