SMM, June 26:
In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2607 contract showed a weak downward trend. The contract opened at 102,090 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly to 101,770 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rebounding, touched an intraday high of 102,100 yuan/mt, and then began to drift lower. It dipped to an intraday low of 101,190 yuan/mt, then edged up slightly before the close, settling at a closing price of 101,340 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts ranged from a Contango of 50 yuan/mt to a Backwardation of 10 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract for cargoes with invoices dated this month ranged from a loss of 210 yuan/mt to a loss of 160 yuan/mt.
During the day, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region stood at 2.7, down 0.1 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment was 2.8, down 0.13 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to premiums of 10 yuan/mt. Among them, JCC and Lufang quoted premiums of 10 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated this month; Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Zijin, and Yuguang quoted discounts of 40 yuan/mt to parity; Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng quoted EXW premiums of 30 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated this month. For high-quality copper, Jinchuan (plate) and Jintun (plate) quoted premiums of 30-40 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated this month. Registered SX-EW copper, such as BMKMOOK, was quoted at discounts of 80-60 yuan/mt. Entering the second timeframe, suppliers slightly lowered their quotes, and non-registered copper was traded at discounts of 180-160 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to next week, the market's supply-demand structure is expected to see marginal changes. On the supply side, some traders need to cover positions due to previous overselling, coupled with a concentrated release of demand to cover orders for cargoes with invoices dated this month, leading to the rapid absorption of available low-priced cargoes. As a result, spot cargoes available for circulation in the subsequent market are expected to remain tight. On the other hand, from a market sentiment perspective, copper prices are currently at relatively low levels, and suppliers generally hold a bullish attitude toward future spot premiums. Their low willingness to sell at lower prices is providing support for spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract are expected to remain in discounts next week, with the discount range likely to narrow slightly.
