SMM, June 26:
Metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market almost all fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, SHFE lead rose 0.15%, SHFE zinc fell 1%, SHFE tin dropped 1.7%, and SHFE nickel declined 1.81%.
In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 1.41%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract tumbled 5.26%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 0.89%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 3.53%.
Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.67%, rebar lost 0.64%, hot-rolled coil slipped 0.51%, and stainless steel dipped 0.21%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.92%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.21%.
Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all fell. LME copper dropped 1.55%, LME aluminum fell 0.97%, LME lead lost 0.39%, LME zinc declined 1.38%, LME tin tumbled 1.99%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%.
Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver plunged 3.4%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold edged down 0.11%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended losses from the previous five trading days, falling another 2.72%, and hit an intraday low of 13,513 yuan/kg, the weakest since December 2025.
Additionally, as of the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.31%, while the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.85%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures added 0.7% to 3,686.5 points.
Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:43, June 26:
Spot and fundamentals
Aluminum: The futures market stopped falling and edged up today. Spot aluminum in South China gradually weakened amid divergence. Low aluminum prices and strong destocking continued to support suppliers holding prices firm in selling...
Macro front
China:
[National Energy Administration: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will continue to open up energy projects and issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects] Wan Jinsong, deputy director and spokesperson of the National Energy Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the administration will persist in the approach of open construction and service-driven investment, increasing support for private enterprises to engage in building a new-type energy system. For major energy projects, it will expand the investment space for private enterprises. For major projects with certain returns, such as nuclear power, hydropower, and oil and gas storage and transportation facilities, the feasibility of private enterprise participation will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will continue to open up energy projects, issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects and others, so that their investments have direction and returns are guaranteed. We will further improve the electricity market and pricing mechanism, and support private enterprises in investing in projects such as virtual power plants, charging facilities, and new-type energy storage.
[Wang Hongzhi, Director of the National Energy Administration: China's installed power capacity is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030] Wang Hongzhi, member of the Party Leadership Group of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Director of the National Energy Administration, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that China's installed power capacity has now exceeded 4 billion kW and is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030. Among this, new energy will account for over 50% of installed capacity, becoming the mainstay of power capacity, while non-fossil fuel power generation will account for 50% of total electricity output, becoming the main source of electricity. Coal and oil consumption will have peaked.
The PBOC conducted a 231.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate. No reverse repos matured today. The PBOC injected a net 329.7 billion yuan into the open market this week. (From Wallstreetcn APP)
US dollar aspect:
As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 101.47. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.6%, cumulative 25-bp hike is 48.8%, and cumulative 50-bp hike is 14.6%. Fed Williams stated that the current monetary policy stance is well positioned to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target while acknowledging that risks to achieving its dual mandate remain. Williams said, "Given that inflation is elevated, we must bring it back sustainably to the 2% longer-run goal. The current stance of monetary policy is fully capable of achieving that." Williams noted that inflation is "clearly elevated" and well above the Committee's 2% objective. He expects inflation data to pull back slightly over the next few quarters, although significant risks remain. Fed Goolsbee said on Thursday that while the latest US inflation report showed a glimmer of hope for improvement in services inflation, underlying inflation pressures remain too high and concerning. In an interview with CNBC, Goolsbee declined to offer specific views on whether the Fed should raise rates or keep them unchanged. He said he agreed with Fed Chairman Warsh's view that fueling speculation about future interest rate paths should be avoided. (Jin10 Data APP)
US data sent mixed signals while oil prices fell below pre-conflict levels. The May PCE inflation YoY matched average expectations, accelerating from 3.8% to 4.1%. Lower energy costs are expected to cool future inflation. May durable goods orders fell 4.5%, versus average expectations for a 4% decline. Meanwhile, Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised up from 1.6% to 2.1%, compared to expectations of 1.7%. Initial jobless claims for the week fell to 215,000, against average expectations of 223,000. (Jin10 Data APP)
A CITIC Securities research report said the US dollar index has strengthened rapidly in recent days, driving gold prices below the $4,000/oz mark. Fading inflation concerns did not push the dollar lower. We believe political “re-dollarization” may partly explain the dollar’s recent strength, but a more important driver likely comes from expectations of tightening dollar liquidity. We expect the dollar index to find support this year but struggle to sustain a strong rally, and the next US inflation data could be a catalyst for the market to adjust trading strategies.
On the data front:
The final US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and final June one-year inflation expectations will be released today. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks.
On the crude oil front:
As of 11:43, both crude benchmarks fell, with WTI down 1.67% and Brent down 1.54%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, supply concerns eased somewhat. However, a cargo vessel was attacked near Oman on Thursday, and markets will closely monitor geopolitical developments.
S&P Global Energy reported on the 25th that 78 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 24th, the highest single-day tally since the outbreak of the Iran war. The daily average number of vessels transiting the Strait this month has recovered to about 57% of pre-conflict levels. As of the 24th, a cumulative total of 551 vessels had transited the Strait this month, putting it on track to be the busiest month since the war began. The report noted that recent departures from the Strait included vessels that had been stranded for long periods due to the conflict as well as recent arrivals, signaling early signs of normalization in shipping activity. However, whether the rebound in transit volumes can be sustained remains to be seen, and related agreements still need further consolidation and implementation. ((Xinhua News Agency)
US Secretary of Energy Wright expects Iran's daily crude oil exports to reach up to 2 million barrels. Additionally, market sources say that crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; in the past three days through Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10 Data App)
An earlier Wallstreetcn article reported that the UAE formally withdrew from OPEC on May 1, and Iraq subsequently threatened to follow suit unless granted greater production freedom. Meanwhile, a series of geopolitical shocks—including the US takeover of Venezuelan oil assets and US-Israeli military actions against Iran—have significantly eroded OPEC's market control capability.
Spot Market Overview:
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