[SMM Nickel Flash News]: What To Expect Next as Market Awaits Finalized RKAB?

Published: Jun 26, 2026 10:53

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With the Indonesian government confirming that the 2026 RKAB has yet to be finalized, the market is now focused on the next steps. Mining companies are expected to submit requests for additional RKAB quotas in July, after which ESDM will review the applications before final approval by Minister Bahlil. Any approved increase in production is likely to affect supply only in H2 2026. Three scenarios remain in focus: a large quota increase (340–360 Mt) would significantly boost ore supply and weigh on nickel prices; a moderate increase (290–320 Mt) would ease the supply shortage with limited market impact; while little or no increase (260–280 Mt) would keep ore supply relatively tight, supporting both ore and nickel prices. As such, the July RKAB decision is expected to be the next major catalyst for Indonesia's nickel market.

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