[SMM Analysis] Weakening Cost Support Drives Nickel Salt Prices Lowe

According to SMM data, on June 25, the FOB price of nickel in Indonesian MHP fell by $191/mt Ni from the previous day, and the FOB price of cobalt in Indonesian MHP rose by $1/mt Co. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte fell by $191/mt Ni.

Indian stainless steel MSMEs and industry bodies flagged a sharp jump in imports after a quality-control (QCO/BIS) exemption lapsed, urging the government to reinstate the Quality Control Order. Citing official data, they said stainless imports hit 101,252 mt in April 2026, up 65% from 61,143 mt a year earlier and 69% above March's 59,917 mt, and warned volumes could climb further without intervention. The exemption—covering 200- and 300-series flat products (standards IS 6911, IS 5522, IS 15997) for shipments loaded by 31 March 2026—was meant to ease MSME raw-material access but is seen as enabling cheap, often Chinese, inflows. Reinstating the QCO would tighten 200/300-series flat imports and adds to New Delhi's broader steel-protection push.

Under the EU's new steel trade regime, importers must prove the 'country of melt and pour'—where steel or iron was first produced in liquid form and cast into its first solid state—to improve supply-chain traceability. Evidence such as a mill test certificate is required from 1 October 2026; melt-and-pour data will feed into country quota distribution from 1 October 2027; and by 30 June 2028 the Commission will assess whether to make melt-and-pour the basis for quota eligibility, possibly via a legislative proposal. The rule targets origin-washing, raising the cost of routing non-EU steel—including Chinese stainless—through third countries to dodge quotas and duties.