[NPI Daily Review] Maintenance Expectations Suppress Demand, NPI Supply-Demand Price Spread Stalemate Hard to Resolve

SMM, June 24 –

       On June 24, SMM’s high-grade NPI market sentiment indicator came in at 2.23, down 0.04 MoM; the upstream sentiment indicator for high-grade NPI stood at 2.59, down 0.08 MoM; and the downstream sentiment indicator for high-grade NPI registered 1.86, down 0.02 MoM. The overall NPI market softened today, with extremely sluggish trading and a widening supply-demand price spread. Steel scrap substitution effects and expectations for production cuts amid steel mill maintenance doubly weighed on NPI demand. On the price front, the quotation range for mainstream 10.5%-11% grade material was from 1,160 to 1,185 yuan per nickel unit. Supplier quotes remained generally stable, but downstream acceptance was insufficient. Mainstream steel mills’ psychological purchase price through fixed-price negotiation stood at only 1,130 yuan per nickel unit, creating a clear disconnect from mainstream market quotations, with only a handful of sporadic spot deals concluded. The supply-demand tug-of-war remained at a stalemate, making it difficult to match upstream and downstream price expectations, while both buying and selling interest stayed weak. On the supply side, suppliers showed no notable reduction in their quotations yet and maintained a sentiment of holding prices firm, but absent rigid demand from buyers, the market featured quoted but hardly traded conditions. Overall, the impact of steel scrap substitution and downstream expectations for maintenance-driven production cuts continued to drag on the market. In the short term, NPI will likely stay in a weak, range-bound pattern characterized by divergent quotations and sluggish trading.