Overnight LME Copper Plunged More Than 2% as Bears Increased Positions, Suppliers Offloaded Goods, Widening Spot Discounts [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,433/mt, fluctuated downward after the opening to touch a session low of $13,363/mt, failed to return to the opening price during the session, and finally settled at $13,373.5/mt, down 2.18%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest stood at 251,000 lots, down 489 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened overnight at 103,100 yuan/mt, edged up to 103,350 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to touch a session low of 102,820 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 102,990 yuan/mt, down 0.57%. Trading volume reached 37,000 lots, and open interest totaled 152,000 lots, up 3,887 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bearish position building.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) Sherritt International (TSX: S) has begun shutting down its refinery in Fort Saskatchewan after expanded US sanctions on Cuba disrupted the supply of raw materials needed to keep the Alberta facility running. The Toronto-based nickel and cobalt producer said the transition is consistent with previous guidance that refinery operations could only continue through mid-June based on existing inventory. The company has initiated the shutdown process and will retain necessary personnel and resources to maintain the plant in a safe and controlled state during the suspension.
Spot market:
(1) Shanghai: On June 23, the SHFE copper 2607 contract showed a weak downward trend in early trading. It opened at 104,680 yuan/mt, then repeatedly declined in multiple waves, touching an intraday low of 103,880 yuan/mt before edging up slightly near the close to settle at 103,960 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the two nearest contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract during the month stood between a loss of 260 yuan/mt and a loss of 200 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, some suppliers have month-end cash needs and are offloading cargoes in the market, dragging the overall center of spot premiums lower. The actual traded discount for standard-quality copper widened to 70–60 yuan/mt, with some brands quoted at discounts of 80–70 yuan/mt. On the demand side, according to SMM, some processing enterprises saw moderate orders after copper prices continued to fall, and their willingness to buy the dip increased. However, market activity shows that trades were only concluded after suppliers repeatedly cut quotes, indicating that downstream players still mainly push for lower prices with limited inclination to chase higher quotes. Overall, with the tug-of-war between suppliers' offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount today, and the discount may widen slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On June 23, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,285 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,170 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, both copper prices and premiums fell, leading to increased restocking and improved market trading activity.
(3) Imported copper: On June 23, the average price of warehouse warrants was unchanged from the previous trading day at $60/mt (price range $55-69/mt); the average price of B/L was unchanged at $63/mt (price range $56-70/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged at $32/mt (price range $28-36/mt). Quotes were for shipments arriving from mid-to-late June to early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 23, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 103,960 yuan/mt, down 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was -10 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices fell 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index dropped to 2.41, while the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.36. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,975 yuan/mt, down 456 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 550 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices pulled back, and secondary copper rod enterprises showed strong willingness to sell. However, downstream end-users were reluctant to purchase, believing there is still room for further decline in copper prices, and they preferred to wait until prices dip below 103,000 yuan/mt before buying.
Prices: On the macro front, US manufacturing activity in June grew more than expected, but factory employment fell to a six-year low. The US dollar index, buoyed by safe-haven sentiment, hit a new high for the year. Regarding the US-Iran conflict, Oman and Iran issued a joint statement emphasizing territorial waters sovereignty and will jointly develop a navigation management agreement. They will also coordinate with the International Maritime Organization to open a temporary shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military said it will continue to maintain a presence in the Middle East and remain vigilant. Divergent signals from US-Iran negotiations, coupled with a stronger US dollar index, pressured copper prices downward yesterday. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, ample available spot cargoes, along with some suppliers cutting prices to offload, resulted in a generally loose supply. On the demand side, just-in-time procurement continued, while downstream players displayed strong fear of high prices and limited willingness to chase the rally. Overall, copper prices today are expected to fluctuate lower.
[The information provided is for reference only. This document does not constitute direct investment advice for research or decision-making. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decision made by clients shall remain independent of SMM.]