US Fed's Hawkish Blow and AI Bubble Fears Push SHFE Tin Down to 390,000 Mark [SMM Tin Morning Update]

SMM Tin Morning Update, June 24, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin 2607 contract continued to slide after opening lower in the night session, closing at 391,360 yuan/mt, down another 4.59% (-18,840 yuan) overnight. Combined with the 4.1% decline during the daytime session on the 23rd, the two-day cumulative drop approached 30,000 yuan/mt, breaking through the 410,000, 400,000, and 395,000 levels in succession, with the intraday low touching 390,500. LME three-month tin tracked the decline, dropping 4.1%, as both SHFE and LME fell in tandem. The US dollar index held firmly above 100 overnight, US real yields rose, and COMEX silver plunged 6%, dragging down the entire nonferrous and precious metals sector. SHFE tin was dominated by bearish position-building, with clear signs of a price collapse in fund flows.
 

Macro:

(1) Hawkish repricing of the US Fed continued to play out, with Warsh striking a firm tone in his debut. ​ In the June FOMC dot plot, nine participants projected at least one rate hike within the year, and six even anticipated multiple hikes; the 2026 PCE inflation forecast was revised sharply higher to 3.6% from 2.7%. In his first press conference, new Chair Warsh emphasized a “clear and consistent commitment to price stability and achieving the 2% target,” which the market interpreted as the start of pricing in an extreme scenario of three rate hikes this year. The US dollar index broke above 100, and with both real yields and the dollar rising, the nonferrous metals sector came under systematic pressure.
(2) AI bubble concerns spilled over from equities to commodity markets. ​ The Nasdaq fell 2.21% overnight, and Google’s market value shrank by $223.4 billion in a single day. Headlines around “talent poaching” in tech stocks and the loosening grip on high-valuation positions led the market to begin trading the distant scenario of “AI capex deceleration.” This was an adverse shock to the structural narrative of incremental logic for tin—related to AI servers and HBM solder—that had previously supported tin prices outperforming the broader nonferrous complex.
 

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tin ore tightness remains unresolved, but signals of marginal improvement have increased. In June, most smelters focused on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect deepened, with rigid demand support and high-price suppression coexisting. ​ Downstream procurement was cautious, carried out on an order-by-order basis.

Spot Market: In contrast to the previous pattern of “steady decline—wait-and-see,” market trading activity noticeably recovered after the sharp drop on the 23rd—absolute prices fell nearly 30,000 over two days, triggering concentrated release of previously deferred rigid orders from downstream solder enterprises, and suppliers saw smoother shipments than in the prior two days. However, caution is warranted: this wave of restocking represents “demand unlocked by falling prices,” and its sustainability depends on whether the 390,000 level can hold. If the downward momentum from 391,000 extends below 390,000 in the night session, downstream buyers may retreat to the sidelines once more.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and internal SMM database models, and are for reference only. They do not constitute a basis for decision-making recommendations. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment or research decisions; clients should make decisions with caution, not using this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not associated with Shanghai Metals Market.]