SMM, June 23:
In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract showed a weak downward trend. The opening price was 104,680 yuan/mt, followed by repeated declines, dipping to an intraday low of 103,880 yuan/mt before a slight rebound toward the close, with the closing price at 103,960 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month futures contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper import profit margin against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 260 yuan/mt and a loss of 200 yuan/mt.
During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.85, up 0.05 MoM, while purchase sentiment was 2.68, up 0.08 MoM; historical data can be accessed in the database. At the start of early trading, initial supplier quotes for standard-quality copper ranged from a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with brands such as JCC, Lufang, and Xiangguang quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, while Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Yuguang, and Zhongtiaoshan were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a discount of 10 yuan/mt. Suppliers then quickly lowered their offers, with Dajiang PC, Zhongjin, Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, Xikuang, and Yuguang quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a discount of 30 yuan/mt; Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintong PC, and Jinfeng quoted EXW at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. High-quality copper brands, such as Guixi and Jintong Daban, were quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper, including ESOX and BMKMOOK, was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers further lowered their offers: Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to parity; Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, Zhongjin, and Xikuang were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a discount of 60 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper traded at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 150 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, some suppliers have month-end cash collection needs, leading to offloading behavior in the market, which dragged the overall spot premiums center lower. The actual transaction discount for standard-quality copper widened to 70-60 yuan/mt, with some brands quoted at a discount as deep as 80-70 yuan/mt. On the demand side, according to SMM, the recent consecutive decline in copper prices has led to moderate order volumes for some processing enterprises, improving dip-buying willingness. However, judging by market performance, transactions only materialized after suppliers lowered their offers multiple times, indicating downstream players are mainly pushing for lower prices, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between supplier offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the SHFE 2607 contract are expected to remain in discount territory tomorrow, with the discount likely to widen slightly.
