Overnight Copper Prices Close Higher as Bulls Reduce Positions; Spot Premiums Decline Under Inventory Buildup Pressure [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,720/mt, hitting a session high of $13,740.5/mt at the open, then fluctuating downward to a low of $13,633.2/mt, and finally settling at $13,587/mt, up 0.62%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, with open interest at 252,000 lots, down 969 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,990 yuan/mt, inched up to 105,170 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 104,470 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 104,990 yuan/mt, down 0.24%. Trading volume was 14,000 lots, with open interest at 104,000 lots, down 2,268 lots from the previous trading day, also due to bullish position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On Monday, June 22, a preliminary production and sales report from Polish copper and silver producer KGHM Group showed total copper sales in May reached 62,100 mt, up 2% YoY, while available copper production was 58,500 mt, down 2% YoY, indicating the miner is consuming existing inventory to meet market demand. In silver, a similar production-sales inversion was observed, with available silver production in May at 129.4 mt, up 11% YoY, and total silver sales at 164 mt, up 46% YoY.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 22, the SHFE copper 2607 contract exhibited a weak downward trend. The opening price was 104,990 yuan/mt, with prices briefly rising before retreating to a high of 105,200 yuan/mt, then trending weakly downward to a low of 104,350 yuan/mt, and slightly rebounding before the close to settle at 104,610 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 250 yuan/mt and a loss of 170 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, while inventory in Jiangsu was 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, showing a slight inventory buildup trend. According to SMM, the buildup was mainly driven by arrivals from some domestic smelters combined with inflows of imported cargoes, increasing supply-side pressure. Market performance was overall sluggish, with suppliers offering premiums at parity to 30 yuan/mt in early trading, but insufficient follow-through buying led to multiple rounds of downward adjustments in quotes. By the second session, actual transaction prices for standard-quality copper had dropped to a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt, with some suppliers engaging in sell-offs, further dragging down the center of market premiums. Demand was weak overall, with downstream buyers only making just-in-time purchases and showing little willingness to chase higher prices. In summary, under the combined pressure of inventory buildup and increased willingness to sell, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On June 22, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,675 yuan/mt, down 490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,580 yuan/mt, down 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventories surged, prompting suppliers to actively reduce prices to sell, while buyers aggressively restocked, resulting in overall trading activity better than last Friday.
(3) Imported Copper: On June 22, the average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $60/mt (price range: $55-69/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $63/mt (price range: $56-70/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) remained flat from the previous trading day at $32/mt (price range: $28-36/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late June and early July.
(4) Secondary Copper: On June 22 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,610 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium stood at 15 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices fell 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day today. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap dropped to 2.49, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.3. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,431 yuan/mt, up 223 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 870 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, after the holiday, copper prices showed mediocre performance, and the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod edged up 10 yuan/mt. End-user restocking sentiment was muted. As a result, although secondary copper rod enterprises wanted to replenish raw material inventory at low prices during the day, copper scrap suppliers were unwilling to sell amid the pullback in copper prices, and overall market transactions were mediocre.
Prices: On the macro front, the first round of high-level talks between the US and Iran concluded yesterday. A joint statement issued by Qatar and Pakistan indicated that all parties agreed to a roadmap for a final agreement within 60 days. Meanwhile, the US Treasury issued a 60-day temporary general license authorizing Iran to sell oil and finalize the signing of an agreement to unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets. Regarding the situation in Lebanon, the US has established a “monitoring mechanism” and has set up a de-escalation mechanism for the Lebanese conflict. Cooling geopolitical risks eased inflation concerns, leading to a slight uptick in copper prices yesterday. Fundamentals side, supply side, increased arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes resulted in ample available supply, keeping overall supply relatively loose. Demand side, overall weakness persisted, with downstream buyers only making just-in-time procurement and showing little willingness to chase higher prices. Inventory side, as of Monday, June 22, SMM national mainstream copper inventories rose WoW, with total inventory reaching 208,100 mt, up 78,500 mt from 129,600 mt in the same period last year, and inventory buildup was seen across all regions. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate slightly higher today.
[The information provided is for reference only, this article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions, clients should make decisions prudently, not use this as a substitute for independent judgment, and any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM]