June 23 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment
Futures: The most-traded AD2608 contract opened at the high of 23,650 yuan/mt in the overnight session. Bulls’ momentum then gradually faded, and prices fluctuated lower overall. During the session, it dipped to a low of 23,490 yuan/mt and closed at 23,545 yuan/mt after a slight rebound near the close, edging down 105 yuan/mt, or 0.44%, from the settlement price. Throughout the session, prices remained below the average price line. Short-term RSI indicators were both above 70, in overbought territory. The 4-hour KD indicator’s K line stayed above the D line, maintaining a bullish structure. However, the night session’s retreat after a rapid rise led to a small decrease of 318 lots in open interest, and trading volume contracted as well.
Spot-Futures Spread Daily: According to SMM data, on June 22, the SMM ADC12 spot price had a theoretical premium of 725 yuan/mt over the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2608) at the 10:15 closing price.
Warrant Daily: SHFE data showed that on June 22, total registered warrants for cast aluminum alloy were 33,545 mt, down 240 mt from the previous trading day. Specifically, Shanghai had 2,956 mt, down 389 mt; Guangdong had 5,501 mt, down 121 mt; Jiangsu had 7,686 mt, down 89 mt; Zhejiang had 11,181 mt, down 30 mt; Chongqing had 5,376 mt, unchanged; Sichuan had 845 mt, unchanged.
Industry Developments: (1) Aluminum Scrap Imports: According to the latest customs data, China’s aluminum scrap imports in May 2026 were approximately 152,000 mt, down 4.8% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-May reached 849,000 mt. By source country, in April, the main suppliers were Thailand, the UK, Japan, the US, Spain, and others, with Thailand accounting for 20.4% of total imports. (2) Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports: According to customs data, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy in May 2026 were 64,500 mt, down 33.5% YoY and down 12.1% MoM. Cumulative imports in January-May were 378,500 mt, down 18.6% YoY. Exports of unwrought aluminum alloy in May 2026 were 60,100 mt, a new monthly high, soaring 148.7% YoY and up 29.9% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-May reached 171,400 mt, up 81.3% YoY.
Aluminum Scrap: Yesterday, SMM A00 price was flat at 23,870 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the aluminum scrap market remained stable overall. Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminum and scrap: on June 22, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 2,337 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 1,686 yuan/mt, down 251 yuan/mt and 364 yuan/mt respectively from last Thursday. Companies’ tax costs rose by more than 2% YoY. The persistent narrowing of the price spread reflects relatively strong bottom support for aluminum scrap. The aluminum scrap market is expected to remain in the doldrums at elevated levels. The tight supply of compliant, invoice-attached cargoes persists, and together with the expanding scope of production cuts and shutdowns, expectations of tightening aluminum scrap supply are growing, providing bottom support for prices. On the demand side, downstream orders for secondary cast aluminum alloy remain persistently sluggish, and purchasing support for wrought aluminum alloys has also weakened. End-use consumption is showing little substantial improvement. The supply-demand weakness pattern in the aluminum scrap market is difficult to reverse in the short term.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on June 23, daily inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in major consumption areas in China was 22,600 mt, down 517 mt from Monday, maintaining the destocking pace.
Silicon Metal: On June 22, SMM prices in east China were stable for non-oxygen blown #553, oxygen-blown #553, #521, #441, #421, #421 for silicone use, and #3303. Some silicon prices in southern China, Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, northwest China, Xinjiang, and Shanghai edged down. Silicon prices in Sichuan were stable.
Markets Outside China: Quotes for imported ADC12 fell slightly to $3,300–3,370/mt. The immediate import loss per tonne narrowed to around 2,568 yuan/mt, easing the inversion somewhat, but the theoretical import window remains closed.
Summary: On Monday, ADC12 market quotes were generally stable, with SMM ADC12 flat at 24,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot aluminum prices and aluminum alloy futures showed limited fluctuations, having a relatively small impact on market sentiment. The cost side has yet to create new driving factors. At the same time, supply-demand fundamentals changed little, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased for rigid restocking, leading to relatively steady market transactions. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to mainly move sideways. Going forward, it will be necessary to monitor the influence of aluminum price trends, aluminum scrap supply, and downstream order recovery on the market.
[Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute any decision-making advice.]
