SMM June 23:
Metals market:
Overnight, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc rose 0.53%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.27%, SHFE nickel rose 0.39%. SHFE tin fell 1.96%, SHFE copper edged down, SHFE lead rose 0.34%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 2.63%, and the cast aluminum main contract rose 0.3%.
Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.16%. HRC fell 0.21%, stainless steel fell 1.46%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.63%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.81%.
Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.62%. LME aluminum fell 1.1%, LME lead rose 0.77%. LME zinc rose 1.32%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel rose 1%.
Overnight, in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.85%, and COMEX silver fell 1.71%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.18%, and SHFE silver fell 1.23%.
As of 7:16 on June 23, the overnight closing prices:
Macro Front
China:
[National Energy Group: Full-Throttle Efforts to Prepare for Peak Summer, Stabilizing Production and Increasing Output to Cement Coal Supply as Ballast] National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. announced in a statement that, according to forecasts by the National Climate Center, this summer's average temperature across the country will be higher than usual, with more high-temperature days than normal. National Energy Group fully leverages its integrated coal-power-chemical-transport operation advantages, makes all-out efforts across all links, and firmly shoulders the heavy responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak summer. Coal supply is the baseline support for stable electricity generation. The coal segment of National Energy Group is rapidly stabilizing and increasing production, coordinating internal and external resources, and ensuring equipment operation and maintenance, aiming for high-output and stable-supply goals to solidify the foundation of energy supply and fully support regional peak power load demand.
[National Energy Group's Installed Power Generation Capacity Exceeds 400 Million kW, Accounting for About 1/10 of National Total] National Energy Group announced that its installed power generation capacity has exceeded 400 million kW, accounting for about one-tenth of the national total, playing a "pillar" role in ensuring stable national power supply and safeguarding energy security. After exceeding 300 million kW in May 2023, its installed capacity entered the 400 million kW level in June 2026, setting a new record among global energy companies for installed generation capacity. Among this, thermal power and wind power installed capacity both remain the world's largest. As of end-May 2026, National Energy Group has put into operation 65 ultra-supercritical coal-fired power units of gigawatt-class, accounting for nearly 30% of all such units in China, with its high-efficiency and clean coal power scale firmly leading the industry; at the same time, the group actively explores new development models such as integrated wind-solar-storage-hydrogen and coordinated generation-grid-load-storage, and has built new-type energy storage with a total capacity of 8.01 million kW / 19.21 million kWh, continuously enhancing its renewable energy consumption and regulation capabilities. (Xinhua)
US dollar:
Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101. Fed's Goolsbee said: Fed Chairman Walsh's approach is to reduce speculation on interest rates and reduce forward guidance; I quite agree with this approach. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. For the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 26.1%, a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 52.2%, and a cumulative 50bp rate hike is 21.4%. (Jinshi Data APP)
Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed tightening. The bank's economists previously expected the Fed to hold rates steady this year. The reason for the revised forecast is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in Fed communication, suggesting the Fed will take a more proactive approach to combating inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains a minority view: only 19% of market investors currently expect three hikes, though that proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. (Jinshi Data APP)
Other currencies:
[Starmer Says UK Labour Party New Leader Election to Start on July 9] UK Prime Minister Starmer said on the 22nd, when announcing his resignation, that the election for the new leader of the UK Labour Party will begin on July 9. Starmer said he has asked the Labour Party's National Executive Committee to set a timetable for the leadership election, with the nomination process to start on July 9 and be completed before the parliamentary summer recess. This means the new Labour leader will be in place before Parliament returns in September. (Xinhua)
Macro front:
Today, data to be released include the preliminary June manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK; the preliminary UK June services PMI; the UK June CBI industrial orders balance; the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6; the preliminary US June S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs; and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Additionally, watch for: a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem; the 17th Summer Davos Forum held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; and MSCI's release of its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be placed on the watch list for developed market status.
Crude oil:
Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.33% and Brent down 2.8%. Oil prices opened higher on Monday but then turned lower. Wallstreetcn mentioned that Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on Monday, announcing that the US and Iran have agreed on a mechanism to end military operations in Lebanon and have established a communication channel to ensure the safety of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury Department then announced that it would allow Iran to sell oil to international markets within 60 days, as one of the conditions of the memorandum of understanding signed by both sides last week. US Vice President Vance described the first round of negotiations as "very, very smooth." (Wallstreetcn)
Furthermore, Iraq's deputy oil minister for upstream affairs said in a statement on Sunday that Iraq plans to gradually restore crude oil production to between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels per day. ANZ Bank expects that in the first four weeks, production will return to about 2 million to 3 million barrels per day. Resumption of production still faces challenges; in Q3 2026, 2 million to 3.5 million barrels per day may be restored, provided the market is stable, while another 1 million to 2 million barrels per day of supply could be permanently or semi-permanently lost. ANZ added: "The initial production recovery will mainly come from logistics (transportation), not production. Later stages will depend on upstream production and refinery restarts. A full resumption of production is unlikely this year." (Jinshi Data APP)
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