[SMM Analysis] China's Zinc Concentrate Imports Stay Under Pressure: Why a June Recovery Looks Unlikely

SMM June 22 News:

According to the latest customs data, China imported 396,500 metric tons (gross weight) of zinc concentrate in May 2026, down 11.42% (51,100 metric tons) from April and 19.31% lower year-on-year. Cumulative imports during January–May reached 2.3987 million metric tons, representing an increase of 8.84% compared with the same period last year.

Import Sources

By country of origin, the top three suppliers of zinc concentrate to China in May 2026 were:

• Oman: 68,300 metric tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports;
• Peru: 63,400 metric tons, accounting for 16.0%;
• Russia: 55,500 metric tons, accounting for 14.0%.

On a month-on-month basis, imports from Peru, South Africa, and Australia declined significantly, while arrivals from Oman and Bolivia recorded moderate increases.

Reasons Behind the Decline in May Imports

The decline in China's zinc concentrate imports in May was largely in line with prior market expectations. SMM attributes the decrease to the following factors:

1. Ongoing Impact of Australian Shipping Disruptions

Logistics disruptions affecting Australian zinc concentrate shipments earlier in the year continued to impact arrivals into China during the second quarter. As a result, imports from Australia declined further in May.

2. Persistent Closure of the Import Arbitrage Window

During April and May, the domestic-to-overseas zinc price ratio remained at relatively low levels, keeping the zinc concentrate import arbitrage window closed. This reduced the inflow of spot cargoes into the Chinese market.

3. Weaker Demand from Domestic Smelters

As zinc concentrate treatment charges continued to decline, profitability at domestic smelters came under pressure. Some smelters reduced operating rates, while seasonal maintenance activities further weighed on refined zinc production. Consequently, overall demand for zinc concentrate weakened during the month.

Outlook for June

SMM expects China's zinc concentrate imports to remain at relatively low levels in June.

On the supply side, the earlier transportation disruptions are expected to continue affecting concentrate arrivals into China. Meanwhile, the domestic-to-overseas zinc price ratio remains weak, encouraging domestic smelters to prioritize purchases of locally sourced zinc concentrate.

On the demand side, refined zinc production in China is expected to decline further in June due to seasonal maintenance activities. With concentrate demand weakening, a meaningful recovery in zinc concentrate import volumes appears unlikely in the near term.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)