Latin American AC Market Faces Short-Term Pressure but Long-Term Promise Amid Economic Recovery

Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency across 796 districts on July 2 due to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon and the heightened risk of heavy rainfall and major natural disasters. According to SMM's market survey, the production and operations of Peru's major copper mines remain largely unaffected, with mining activities continuing as normal. However, logistics activities—including ore transportation, the delivery of production supplies, worker commuting and vessel schedules—may experience some disruptions. Mines that primarily rely on rail transportation are expected to face relatively limited impacts. Based on feedback from local industry sources, large-scale operations such as Antamina and Quellaveco, which utilize rail transport, are expected to experience relatively limited logistics pressure.

Peru has declared a 60-day state of emergency across 796 districts in several regions, including Ancash, Arequipa and Piura, due to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon and the heightened risk of heavy rainfall and natural disasters. During the emergency period, the government will implement disaster prevention, emergency response and recovery measures. Market participants believe that if severe weather disrupts transportation networks, ports or mining-related infrastructure, copper mine logistics and concentrate shipments could face temporary disruptions. Further developments and potential impacts on mining operations will continue to be closely monitored.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,256.5/mt, dipped to $13,240/mt early in the session, then drifted higher to touch a high of $13,398/mt before its price center gradually shifted lower to eventually close at $13,285.5/mt, down 0.34%. Trading volume reached 14,800 lots, and open interest stood at 250,000 lots, an increase of 8,743 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,470 yuan/mt, drifted higher early on to test 102,960 yuan/mt, then its price center shifted lower and it moved sideways, hitting a low of 102,280 yuan/mt near the end of the session before ultimately closing at 102,410 yuan/mt, up 0.12%. Trading volume reached 34,800 lots, and open interest stood at 152,000 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions.