The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum, boosting copper prices; overnight, LME copper and SHFE copper closed higher [SMM Copper Morning Briefing]

Thursday, June 18, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,813/mt, with prices swinging wildly at the open. During the session, it dipped to $13,776.5/mt, then its price center fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $13,835.5/mt near the close before settling at $13,835/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 11,500 lots, and open interest stood at 251,000 lots, a decrease of 7,579 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,280 yuan/mt, touched a session high of 105,580 yuan/mt, then saw its center dip to 105,210 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to close at 105,510 yuan/mt, up 0.1%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest was 122,000 lots, a decrease of 2,119 lots from the previous trading day, also reflecting bearish position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) Canada's Lumina Metals, with its mine project under planning, could help Poland more than double its copper production, boosting the country’s ambition to become a key supplier of the metal vital for electrification and industrial growth. Lumina shares surged 46% on their Warsaw Stock Exchange debut on Tuesday. The company raised C$406.2 million (approx. $290 million) in its April IPO to advance its Nowa Sól copper project in southwestern Poland. In early May, Lumina signed a letter of intent with state-owned copper producer KGHM Polska Miedz SA to discuss future copper concentrate supplies from the project. The Nowa Sól project, located in the northern Poland copper strip, spans 120 square kilometers and is close to KGHM's mining and processing facilities. Since discovering the deposit in 2014, Lumina has completed over 51,000 meters of drilling, delineating 604 million mt of measured and indicated resources with a copper grade of 1.24% and silver grade of 38 g/mt. The company describes the project as one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-silver deposits.
Spot Market:
(1) Shanghai: In the morning session on June 17, the SHFE copper 2607 contract moved sideways before retreating after a rapid rise. It opened at 105,200 yuan/mt, then edged down to a low of 105,040 yuan/mt. Prices then fluctuated between 105,050 yuan/mt and 105,240 yuan/mt before rising to a high of 105,570 yuan/mt and subsequently pulling back slightly to close at 105,450 yuan/mt. The next-month Contango spread ranged from 70 yuan/mt to 110 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper import profit margin against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 270 yuan/mt and a loss of 320 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, copper prices edged up. Though buying and selling sentiment rebounded, it remained relatively weak overall. Suppliers quoted premiums from parity to 10 yuan/mt early in the session, but actual trading was sluggish. Quotes were subsequently lowered for a second time to a discount of around 20 yuan/mt to facilitate deals, reflecting downstream's limited acceptance of current copper prices and a weak willingness to chase the rally. The next-month Contango spread widened slightly but remained around 100 yuan/mt, prompting suppliers to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to the release of warrants tomorrow. If there is a concentrated release of warrants, it will pressure spot premiums; if the outflow is limited, the downside room for the discount is relatively small, supported by the price spread structure. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertainty over warrant outflows, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On June 17, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was reported at 210 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,500 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,410 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, pre-holiday restocking interest was weak, spot trades were average, and the situation is not expected to improve today.
(3) Imported Copper: On June 17, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $59/mt (price range: $54-64/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $61/mt (price range: $55-67/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF, B/L) was flat from the previous trading day at $33/mt (price range: $30-36/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late June to early July.
(4) Secondary Copper: The futures closing price at 11:30 on June 17 was 105,320 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium stood at 20 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.49, while the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.25. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,714 yuan/mt, up 231 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,090 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, many secondary copper rod enterprises will arrange for workshop workers to take at least one day off due to limited input tax invoices or insufficient inventory of duty-paid copper scrap.
Prices: On the macro front, the US and Iran reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding online, easing geopolitical conflict risks and providing support to copper prices. The US Fed kept rates unchanged at this meeting, with Waller’s debut being mildly hawkish, removing language suggesting rate cuts and refusing to provide forward guidance. However, the new quarterly projections showed that nine policymakers expect rate hikes by the end of 2026, which heightened market expectations for tightening and capped the upside room for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, a slight widening of the price spread between futures contracts drove suppliers to hold prices firm, keeping spot market supply relatively tight; on the demand side, high copper prices suppressed overall transactions to sluggish levels, with only just-in-time procurement seen. In summary, copper prices are expected to remain in the doldrums today, weighed by rate hike expectations.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]