Tight Ore Supply Fundamentals Unchanged; SHFE Zinc Expected to Maintain Fluctuating Trend[SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

SMM June 17 News:

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,579.5/mt, briefly rising to a high of $3,599/mt before retreating from highs and declining all the way. During the session, it dipped to a low of $3,539/mt, then rebounded slightly from the low to near the daily moving average, beginning a fluctuating trend. It eventually closed down at $3,561.5/mt, down $23/mt, a decline of 0.64%. Trading volume fell to 10,367 lots, while open interest rose by 3,639 lots to 250,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc formed a bearish candlestick, breaking below multiple daily moving averages. Ahead of the US Fed's decision, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, but LME zinc ingot inventory rose notably to above 120,000 mt, weighing on zinc prices. LME zinc fluctuated lower, with its center moving downward.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,735 yuan/mt. After opening, it fluctuated around the daily moving average, touching a high of 24,780 yuan/mt at the start and dipping to a low of 24,665 yuan/mt during the session. It finally settled down at 24,715 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.2%. Trading volume fell to 28,280 lots, while open interest rose by 3,340 lots to 83,970 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc formed a bearish candlestick, with the middle Bollinger Band forming resistance. Affected by LME price movements, the night session center of SHFE zinc declined. However, on the fundamentals side, the tight ore supply situation remained unimproved, and zinc concentrate TCs continued their downward trend, providing some support for zinc prices. It is expected that SHFE zinc will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Data source statement: All data other than public information are based on public information and market communications, processed by SMM using its internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.