[China Iron Ore Brief] Next week, domestically produced iron ore concentrate prices may have some room to rise.

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On July 1, the total daily HRC trading volume of SMM's sample enterprises in four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 11,360 mt, with day-on-day (-690 mt, -5.4%), calendar YoY (-15.73%), and lunar YoY (-12.75%) changes.

The most-traded HRC futures contract drifted lower today and closed at 3,285, down 0.79% for the day, falling below previous support. Spot HRC prices fell by 10-25 yuan/mt today, and spot cold-rolled coil prices declined by 10 yuan/mt. Supply side, this week’s impact from hot rolling maintenance was 63,100 mt, down 85,000 mt WoW; next week’s impact from maintenance is 23,100 mt, down 40,000 mt WoW from this week. Overall HRC production is expected to edge up. Demand side, end-users remain in the off-season, and the continued decline in futures led to poor speculative sentiment, with a sluggish overall market atmosphere. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there are market talks that the 10th round of increases will be launched on Friday. Hot metal output fell by 4,700 mt WoW this week, and cost-side support has weakened somewhat but has not collapsed yet. Looking ahead, contradictions in sheets & plates continue to accumulate. Inventory data released this week show that most cities continued to see inventory buildup, and downstream support remains weak. However, futures have already reached a relatively low level, so there is not expected to be much room for further pullback in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to steel mill maintenance.

The Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore market showed volatile trading today, with contract I2609 finally closing at 733 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell by 10–12 yuan/ton from the prior day.