[SMM Analysis] The supply-demand imbalance in construction steel is showing signs of emerging this period.

This week, mines and beneficiation plants in the Shandong region quoted 820 for 64-grade alkaline powder on a dry basis, before tax, with acceptance payment at the mine, up 10. Steel mills raised prices in tandem. Most miners are producing normally, with a few undergoing routine monthly maintenance. Hebei steel mills showed moderate purchasing interest. Mines and beneficiation plants held no inventory, and small plants and traders shipped against scheduled orders. This week, regional resources were tight.

[Vietnam] Imported HRC offers in Vietnam strengthened following a fire incident at a major domestic steel complex, which raised expectations of tighter near-term supply. Offers for Indonesian-origin SAE1006 HRC increased to approximately USD 548–558/tonne CFR Vietnam, while the ASEAN HRC assessment rose by USD 8/tonne to USD 535/tonne CFR Vietnam. Another major Vietnamese producer was also expected to raise its selling prices and reduce allocations. However, buyers remained cautious toward the higher offers, and market acceptance has yet to be fully tested.

[India Export] Indian HRC export sentiment strengthened, with some market participants indicating that CFR Europe levels are approaching 695USD/tonne, compared with discussions around 680USD/tonne earlier. Europe is currently seen as the more viable outlet for Indian mills, with seasonal demand expected to remain firm while production cuts across the region could tighten domestic supply during the winter period. Export prospects into Southeast Asia appear more limited for now, although the recent Formosa incident could influence regional supply-demand dynamics. SMM tracking shows several vessels currently loading steel coils at Dhamra and Paradip, although their destinations remain unconfirmed while the vessels are still at berth. In the domestic market, HRC prices are presently close to 635USD/tonne (60,000INR/tonne) EXW Mumbai. The market could see some interim correction before stabilizing around 614–635USD/tonne (58,000–60,000INR/tonne) in the near term. Elevated inventories could lead to temporary corrections, but a sustained decline is considered less likely as coking-coal and other raw-material costs remain firm and demand expectations remain positive.