[SMM Analysis] How Will the Greenbush Fire Affect? Lithium Carbonate Market May Stay Range-Bound in the Short Term

Today, the SMM spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fluctuated upward compared to the previous trading day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened higher at 168,000 yuan/mt today, quickly surged to 169,500 yuan/mt after opening, then fluctuated and pulled back, moving sideways around the average price line during the morning session. Around midday, it accelerated its decline to an intraday low of 164,800 yuan/mt. It rebounded in the afternoon, fluctuated narrowly around 167,400 yuan/mt in late trading, and ultimately closed up 0.65% at 166,400 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing by 8,762 lots.

In the spot market, downstream psychological purchase willingness prices were relatively low, with most participants remaining cautious and on the sidelines. Upstream lithium chemical plants' willingness to sell via spot orders remained above the 170,000 yuan/mt level, maintaining an attitude of holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries were relatively active, but due to a mismatch in price expectations between upstream and downstream, actual transaction volumes were relatively limited.

On the news front, today IGO Limited announced that a fire broke out at CGP3 at Greenbushes on June 9. The fire has been extinguished, and no casualties were reported. According to IGO, operations at CGP1 and CGP2 were unaffected, and IGO has not revised its FY2026 production guidance. The impact on actual near-term global spodumene supply is expected to be limited. However, the extent of the damage to CGP3, the repair timetable, and the recovery plan should be closely monitored. If this incident materially delays the ramp-up of CGP3, it could affect the pace and marginal volume of Greenbushes' future supply growth.

In summary, the short-term lithium carbonate market continues to see a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Supply-side disruptions, such as a pullback in Chilean exports and Jiangxi mine license renewals, provide price support, while high warrant pressure and expectations of Zimbabwean ore arrivals create overhead resistance. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term, with key areas of future focus remaining the warrant inflection point, progress on Jiangxi mine license renewals, and the pace of Zimbabwean ore arrivals.