Overnight LME copper plunged nearly 2.8%, with bears increasing their positions; the pullback in copper prices stimulated rigid demand, and spot discounts narrowed [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Monday, June 8, 2026
Futures market: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,788/mt, hitting a high of $13,803/mt in early trading before the price center continuously moved lower, dipping to $13,499.5/mt near the close and finally settling at $13,517/mt, a decline of 2.78%. Trading volume reached 25,200 lots, and open interest stood at 273,000 lots, up 1,576 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in short positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,790 yuan/mt, initially rising to 105,000 yuan/mt before fluctuating downward all the way, dipping to 103,600 yuan/mt near the close and finally settling at 103,800 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.84%. Trading volume reached 62,000 lots, and open interest was 167,000 lots, down 6,309 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in long positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) According to Miningnews.net, little-known Tarrina Resources announced that its Walparuta IOCG project in the Curnamona region of South Australia shows certain potential. The company said that an induced polarization (IP) survey conducted along the northern part of the 5 km Walparuta gravity anomaly zone showed that an anomaly extending 700 m suggests a previously undrilled area could be a sulphide ore body. Interpretation suggests the largest anomaly is below 70 m of surface, located less than 400 m southeast of the old Walparuta mine on top of the main magnetic-gravity anomaly, and may extend northward beneath cover.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 5, the SHFE copper 2606 contract showed an overall trend of opening lower with a gap and then consolidating sideways. The opening price was 106,290 yuan/mt, and after opening, the price quickly moved down to a low of 105,030 yuan/mt, then stabilized, edged up to 105,490 yuan/mt, before pulling back again to close at 105,160 yuan/mt. The contango spread between futures contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract was between a loss of 880 yuan/mt and 750 yuan/mt. From the supply-demand side, consumption improved compared to before. SMM learned that some suppliers reported an increase in downstream orders. As delivery approached, the inter-month spread narrowed slightly. Supported by delivery dynamics, suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, and spot premiums for SHFE copper edged up. Moreover, import losses continued to widen, reducing the incentive for outside China supplies to flow in, limiting incremental supply. Overall, supported by delivery dynamics, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, with the discount likely to narrow slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On June 5, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was quoted at 50 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,335 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,250 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream purchases picked up, suppliers sold at firm prices, and spot premiums edged up.
(3) Imported copper: On June 5, the average warrant price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $64/mt (range $60-68/mt); the average B/L price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $65/mt (range $61-69/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $4/mt from the previous trading day to $33/mt (range $28-38/mt), referencing arrivals in mid-to-late June and early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 5, at 11:30 the futures closing price was 105,610 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average spot premium stood at -35 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices were unchanged from the previous trading day. The copper scrap selling sentiment index fell to 2.69, while the buying sentiment index rose to 2.34. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,276 yuan/mt, down 440 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod stood at 1,410 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as individual secondary copper rod enterprises gradually resumed production across various regions, demand for copper scrap recovered. Prior to resuming production, these enterprises needed to build raw material inventories, so their raw material quotes were generally above market prices. Many copper scrap suppliers preferred to trade with the just-resumed enterprises.
Prices: On the macro front, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalated. After Israel airstruck the southern suburbs of Beirut, Iran immediately launched a missile counterstrike. Trump urged both sides to exercise restraint, demanded Iran back down and Israel suspend retaliation, and set a 60-day negotiation deadline, stating that a US-Iran agreement would be led by the US. In terms of economic data, US nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, while the previous two months' figures were revised up by a combined 93,000, substantially beating expectations. The market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed at the end of the year. Trump commented that a strong jobs market does not equal rising inflation, so the Fed does not need to raise rates and prefers low interest rates. Driven by rate-hike expectations, the US dollar index strengthened, weighing on copper prices. On the fundamental side, supply side: spot high-quality copper was in short supply, low-priced circulating cargo was scarce, coupled with widening import losses and shrinking inflows from abroad, domestic supply growth was constrained. Demand side: as copper prices retreated, downstream just-in-time procurement willingness recovered, and spot purchases saw some pickup. Overall, copper prices are expected to move sideways today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM]