BC Copper Retreats after Rapid Rise and Ends Lower, AI Cools, Awaiting Nonfarm Payroll Guidance [SMM BC Copper Review]

The most-traded BAI copper 2607 contract opened at 94,280 yuan/mt today, quickly peaking at 94,880 yuan/mt before swinging wildly. After the day session opened, copper prices’ center plunged straight down and then fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of 93,090 yuan/mt near the close, eventually settling at 93,380 yuan/mt, a drop of 0.61%. Open interest fell to 11,035 lots, down 152 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume came to 8,286 lots, signaling long liquidation. On the macro front, Broadcom’s AI guidance fell short of expectations, cooling trading sentiment in the AI sector and weighing on AI-linked copper prices. A wait-and-see sentiment intensified as the market awaited tonight’s non-farm payrolls data — the first such report since Warsh took office. The market focused on the release of tonight's non-farm payrolls data, the first such release since Warsh took office. On the fundamental side, supply tightness persisted for high-quality spot copper, with few low-priced circulating sources. Combined with steadily widening import losses, contracted inflows from overseas arrivals limited domestic supply growth. On the demand side, downstream just-in-time procurement willingness recovered as copper prices pulled back, and spot purchasing saw some pick-up.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract settled at 105,150 yuan/mt. Given that the most-traded BAI copper 2607 contract settled at 93,380 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,519 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -369 between the SHFE copper 2607 contract and the BAI copper contract. The spread remained inverted and widened from the previous day.