[SMM Analysis] Chinese Blister Copper RCs to Remain Stable in June amid Tight Market

SMM June 1 News:

On May 29, SMM's monthly blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 800-1,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 900 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt MoM.

In May, the blister copper market remained generally tight, with blister copper RCs maintaining a stable trend. Although the upward shift in copper price center and the widening price difference between primary metal and scrap provided some relief to raw material pressure for scrap-derived blister copper and copper anodes, the core supply disruption lay in the tightening of policies on secondary copper. On one hand, industry bill supervision became stricter; on the other hand, policy and financial support contracted, directly leading to undersupply of tax-inclusive raw materials, intensified wait-and-see sentiment among producers, and declining production enthusiasm.

In April 2026, China imported 72,700 mt of copper anodes (HS code: 74020000), up 5.64% MoM and down 2.10% YoY. Cumulative imports of copper anodes from January to April 2026 totaled 263,200 mt, up 7.54% YoY cumulatively. In April, China imported 45,300 mt of copper ingots (red/bare copper ingots) (HS code: 74031900), up 1% MoM and down 6% YoY. Cumulative imports of copper ingots (red/bare copper ingots) from January to April 2026 totaled 187,400 mt, up 20% YoY cumulatively.

China's copper anode imports in April grew MoM but declined YoY. In detail, the April import increase mainly came from the DRC, as copper anodes from the local Kamoa copper smelter (blister copper annual capacity of 500,000 mt) arrived at ports in concentrated batches after reaching full production. Meanwhile, imports from Chile declined notably. As domestic demand for imported copper anodes rises, Q2 copper anode imports are expected to remain at intra-year highs. Additionally, a copper anode smelter in Zambia underwent maintenance from early May to month-end June, so China's copper anode imports in Q3 are expected to pull back somewhat.

On May 29, SMM's weekly blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 900-1,100 yuan/mt, with an average of 1,000 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; weekly copper anode RCs were quoted at 500-700 yuan/mt, with an average of 600 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

SMM expects the blister copper market to remain tight in June 2026, with RCs in China unlikely to fluctuate significantly, as the underlying logic remains similar to May. In terms of supply, imported copper anodes still have room for incremental growth in June, while copper prices fluctuating at highs are conducive to increased copper scrap supply. However, the policy side remains a key disruptive variable, and major production hubs for scrap-derived blister copper and copper anodes—Jiangxi, Anhui, and other provinces—still face divergence between tax-inclusive and tax-exclusive raw materials. Additionally, a mine-sourced copper anode supplier's refining capacity came on stream at the end of May, further squeezing circulating supply in the market.

Demand side, smelters will still be under maintenance from June to August. Combined with further declines in copper concentrates TC and short-term peaking of by-product profits such as sulphuric acid, rigid demand for blister copper and copper anodes remains firm.

Overall, China's blister copper market in June is expected to continue the May trend, with limited room for RC fluctuations. Future market direction will mainly depend on secondary copper-related policies and copper price movements.