Codelco's Q1 2026 Profit Triples to $825M Despite 8% Drop in Copper Production

Chile is the world's largest copper-producing country. Data released on Friday by Chile's National Bureau of Statistics (INE) showed that the country's copper production in April declined 13.8% YoY.According to official data, Chile's copper production in April was 399,954 mt, compared with 464,056 mt in the same period last year. The production decline was mainly attributable to a high base in the same period last year and lower ore grades at major miners.In addition, metal products production fell 15.4% YoY, further dragging down the overall performance of the manufacturing sector.

Commerzbank expects copper prices to rise to $14,250 per mt by mid-2027.

In May, copper prices surged before retracing, yet copper scrap payability coefficients remained exceptionally firm. Transactions for Millberry stabilized at a high level of 98.5%, while No. 2 copper became the market highlight, with its coefficient climbing from around 95% to 96%–97% due to the premium upside of its gold and silver by-products. Driven by stricter domestic policies and tax compliance, China demand remained robust. Conversely, tight overseas scrap supply persisted, and this structural mismatch kept import payability coefficients elevated and sticky for the short term. Under the current landscape of tight global supply and resilient demand, the traditional market logic of "surging copper prices driving down payability coefficients" has effectively become obsolete.