Molten Aluminum Proportion Rises Beyond Expectations in May, to Edge Up Slightly in June

SMM News, May 29:

According to SMM statistics, domestic primary aluminum output in May 2026 (31 days) rose 2.1% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month.

Although the recovery of domestic end-user demand has been relatively slow, the persistent widening of the primary aluminum supply gap overseas has strongly boosted export demand for domestic aluminum products. This has effectively underpinned domestic molten aluminum consumption and kept apparent consumption in positive growth territory. The proportion of molten aluminum in domestic production edged up moderately, rising by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month to 76.5% in the month. The overall performance was slightly better than expectations at the start of the month, mainly driven by stronger-than-expected export orders.

Based on SMM’s calculation of molten aluminum proportion, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in May fell 1.2% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month.

Capacity Changes: As of late May, SMM recorded domestic operational primary aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million metric tons, with no month-on-month change.

Output Forecast: In June 2026, buoyed by improving overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep recovering, supporting a slight rebound in the molten aluminum proportion. Overall, the molten aluminum proportion is projected to increase by 0.1 percentage point to 76.6%.