[SMM Steel Market Flash] Mexico Pushes to Drop 50% US Steel Tariffs in USMCA Review, More Talks Due in June-July

China Steel Market: [Flat Products] Flat-product export prices steady, deals remain hard to close HRC and other flat-product export prices held broadly steady today, with HRC deals at 490-500 USD/tonne FOB. Northeastern mills said deals remain hard to close; North China mills offer lower prices, leaving the Northeast less competitive, with only small-lot transactions done. [Billet] Billet export quotes hold steady, Middle East inquiries up slightly but trading mild Billet export quotes were stable today, with workable FOB offers at 463-465 USD/tonne. The market noted that with geopolitics unsettled and strait passage repeatedly disrupted, Middle East inquiries rose slightly, but Chinese export billet offers held no clear edge; wary of future costs, mills showed limited willingness to discount, leaving trading mild. [Rebar] Rebar export quotes steady, some mills curb orders for maintenance Rebar export quotes were stable today, with workable FOB prices at 481-483 USD/tonne. Traders said export inquiries showed no clear change; some mills are under maintenance and deliberately curbing order intake to safeguard domestic supply. Off-season demand and overseas price pressure kept overall trading weak. International Steel Market: [Southeast Asia] Southeast Asia slab exports soften, Indonesian offers cut Southeast Asian slab trading was thin in June and regional export prices kept falling. Indonesian mills cut August-shipment HRCgrade slab offers to 495 USD/tonne FOB, down 15 USD/tonne week-on-week and 20 USD/tonne from early June on weak sales; Vietnamese slab is offered near 510 USD/tonne FOB with limited deals. On imports, Chinese slab recently traded at 510 USD/tonne CFR, with workable levels now no higher than 500 USD/tonne CFR. [European Union] Off-season and policy wait-and-see leave EU HRC hike unlikely EU local steel demand stayed weak on poor weather and extended summer holidays, pressuring HRC prices lower. Some mills quote around 775-781 USD/tonne EXW, but traders report actual deals are lower and vary by region. Earlier rumors that major mills planned a 57-80 USD/tonne hike in July-August look uncertain given current weakness. Buyers are sidelined, waiting for clarity after July 1, with the near-term outlook still under pressure. [India] India HRC prices hold, weak demand caps deals India's domestic HRC trade prices held this week at about 601 USD/tonne EXW in Mumbai and 617 USD/tonne EXW in Chennai. Monsoon-driven weak demand kept buyers restocking only as needed, with supply-chain inventories high. The market awaits mills' July base-price guidance, with any rise seen limited at about 8 USD/tonne. High prices, high stocks and rising Chinese finished-steel imports left sentiment bearish, with weakness possibly lasting through end-October. [United States] Nucor ends rally, US HRC mill price stays elevated Nucor held its HRC price unchanged this week, the first pause since late January, ending a 22-week run of increases. For the week ended June 29, Nucor's HRC was steady at 1245 USD/tonne EXW and California Steel Industries flat at 1300 USD/tonne EXW. Nucor's lead times are typically 3 to 5 weeks. Citing domestic and overseas HRC price trends and strong demand, Nucor still expects a robust HRC market in the coming months.

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On June 30, the total daily HRC trading volume of sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,050 mt, down 740 mt, or 5.9%, DoD, down 12.81% YoY (solar calendar), and down 14.36% YoY (lunar calendar).