Tight Spot Supply Pushes Up QMJP Premium: Asian Aluminum Market Diverges, Squeeze Risk Climbs Under LME Deep Backwardation [SMM Analysis]

I. MJP Quarterly Premium Surges, Asian Aluminum Market Pricing Center Shifts Significantly Upward

This week, two major international aluminum producers, South32 and Rio Tinto, successively announced their Q3 2026 Japan Main Port (MJP) aluminum ingot CIF long-term contract quotes. South32 quoted $480/mt, while Rio Tinto quoted $460/mt. Compared to the Q2 finalised level of $350–353/mt, this represented a significant QoQ increase of $110–130/mt, a rise of over 30%, hitting a phased high in recent years. Affected by the sharp rise in premiums, the Japanese local spot market showed notable differentiation. Some downstream enterprises had relatively high price acceptance, releasing just-in-time procurement willingness; while more cost-sensitive buyers gradually shifted to alternative sources such as other mainstream ex-China brand aluminum ingots to reduce procurement costs. Regional cargo diversion intensified, and Japan's aluminum ingot procurement structure became increasingly diversified.

II. Thailand CIF Market: Dual Tailwinds Support Price Rise, Market Shows Strong Prices but Weak Volume

As Southeast Asia's core aluminum ingot transit and distribution hub, the Thai market was simultaneously supported by dual tailwinds of MJP high premium transmission and domestic aluminum scrap supply shortages, with traders showing strong willingness to hold prices firm. Currently, mainstream local aluminum ingot CIF offers remained stable at $300–320/mt, with quotes rising WoW. The logic supporting this round of price rise was clear: on the fundamentals side, China's aluminum scrap supply was tight, highlighting the overall aluminum element supply gap and providing solid bottom support for primary aluminum prices; externally, the Q3 MJP premium surge drove Southeast Asian traders to collectively raise spot quotes. Downstream participants mostly adopted a wait-and-see stance, with end-users only maintaining small-batch just-in-time procurement to restock, while overall proactive stockpiling sentiment remained subdued. Acceptance of high-priced resources was low, and the market exhibited a typical pattern of strong prices but weak volume.

III. Vietnam Market: Fundamentals Operating Independently, Desensitized to MJP Premium Rise

This round of MJP premium increase did not provide notable support to the Vietnamese aluminum market, with market trends remaining relatively independent. The core reason was that local processing enterprises chose to import aluminum semis as a substitute for purchasing aluminum ingots, significantly weakening domestic primary aluminum procurement demand. Domestic demand was diverted by finished aluminum semis, and market trading was sluggish.

IV. South Korea Market: Transactions Recover and Prices Rise, Stockpiling Risks Gradually Emerge

Driven by the rising QMJP premium, sellers in the South Korean market showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm, with the overall trading atmosphere outperforming other markets in the region. This week, spot transaction activity increased, and market transaction prices rose in tandem.

V. Market Summary and Risk Alert: LME Structure Extremely Bullish, Squeeze Risk Elevated to High Levels

At the current stage, the core contradiction in the Asian aluminum market stemmed from the global spot supply shortage. This shortage directly drove the Q3 MJP premium significantly higher and radiated outward to Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, and other regional markets, causing notable divergence in market conditions across regions. Meanwhile, the extreme backwardation structure in the LME market further amplifies potential risks at the commodity level:

First, futures exhibit a deep backwardation structure. As of May 28, the LME Cash-3M backwardation was recorded at $92.53/mt. This extreme spot premium directly reflects the extreme scarcity of global spot resources.

Second, social inventory is at historical lows. Total aluminum ingot inventory in LME registered warehouses stands at only around 340,000 mt, with stock levels hitting new lows. Available spot cargo remains insufficient, posing squeeze risks.

Third, speculative stockpiling risks are intensifying. In a market environment of low inventory and high premiums, if regional traders collectively stockpile, hold back from selling, and hold prices firm, this could further tighten available market supply, exacerbate the current tight spot supply situation, and significantly increase the probability of a squeeze occurring. Overall, Asian aluminum prices are more likely to rise than fall in the short term, and the firm pricing pattern in core markets such as Thailand and South Korea will continue. However, market participants should be highly vigilant against squeeze crises triggered by the extreme LME backwardation structure.

[Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Data source: SMM