China Silicon Metal Production Edged Up in May; What's June Outlook?

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: Quoted prices for N-type recharging polysilicon are 32.7-35 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices are overall relatively weak, market transactions are weak, the earlier order signing has concluded, and the current focus is mainly on shipments while awaiting further policy developments. Wafers: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers are 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers are 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece. Currently, the three top-tier players are all holding prices, with overall transactions more optimistic than expectations, but recently facing pressure from both the cell and polysilicon ends.

On June 9, the PV ETF Guotai (159864) surged nearly 3%, drawing attention to PV+ESS synergy and new-type power grid construction. CSC Financial pointed out that the construction of AI computing centers places higher demands on power supply and new-type power grids, and areas such as power equipment, energy storage, transformers, power distribution, and computing-power synergy are expected to become important extensions of the computing power industry chain. Against the backdrop of China’s entire-industry-chain advantages in power equipment, North America’s continuously growing AI computing power investment, and Europe’s urgent need for energy transformation, the power and grid sectors are expected to rise. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation of China’s fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan; completed investment in power grid infrastructure saw a significant YoY rise, and the central range of grid capital expenditure shifted notably upward. At the policy level, the planning and construction of the “six networks” including “new-type power grids” is being emphasized, with investment in related fields projected to be enormous, and the main policy thrust has shifted to systematically shoring up weak links in infrastructure.

According to the survey, three top-tier wafer enterprises are jointly holding prices firm. SMM’s specific quotations are as follows: 183mm: 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece 210R: 0.98-1.0 yuan/piece 210N: 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece As of now, the lowest prices implemented by the three enterprises are within the quotation range. SMM analysis indicates that although current wafer selling prices are above cash costs, they will later face pressure from both polysilicon and cell ends, and whether wafers can maintain current prices depends on the determination of top-tier players. Quality and price assurance is becoming a key focus across the entire industry. It is worth noting that using low-quality, low-priced wafers will not only visibly cause module power output to fall below expectations, but more importantly, it will lead to hidden risks such as first-year light-induced degradation (LID) and accelerated aging.