[SMM Analysis] Trading Sentiment Slightly Rebounded, Nickel Salt Prices Rose

Nippon Steel's significant price hike on the back of soaring raw material costs, combined with peak-level export offers from Europe, the US, and Asia, is pushing Chinese Taiwan's upstream mills toward higher June pricing. However, frequent shifts in Indonesian nickel ore policies have caused sharp LME nickel price volatility, complicating cost-based price adjustments for mills worldwide. Traders note that Japanese mills' lead in raising prices and high-priced European and US imports provide short-term support for the uptrend, but sluggish overall market absorption in May and elevated inventory at local distributors are constraining the extent of any price increase.

Indonesia's aggressive regulatory push, extending beyond ore export bans to include production quota cuts, tax reforms, and tight export controls, has driven global nickel prices sharply higher. Jakarta now plans a floating export duty and windfall tax of 14–19% on low-processed nickel products to curb tax evasion and smuggling. While these policies pushed stainless steel prices to near-unacceptable highs earlier this year, downstream buying appetite weakened noticeably in May. Faced with persistent cost pressures but sluggish demand, Chinese Taiwan's stainless steel mills are widely expected to issue flat or marginally higher price lists for June, steering clear of sharp increases that could trigger buyer resistance.

Driven by rising price expectations, resilient Southeast Asian infrastructure demand, and the release of backlogged foreign orders, China's stainless steel exports rose 27.1% MoM to approximately 394,000 tons in April, with cold-rolled coils leading shipment growth. Vietnam emerged as the top buyer at 66,000 tons, its second-highest single-month volume on record; while India's imports hit a 19-month high of 36,000 tons, supported by an extended BIS certification exemption to fill domestic supply gaps. Easing regional tensions also drove China's Middle East exports up 45.7% MoM to 43,000 tons.