BlackRock Supports Major Miner Consolidation; Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.5.28 Thursday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,653/mt, swung wildly in early trading and probed as high as $13,666/mt, after which the copper price center fluctuated downward and dipped below $13,512.5/mt. Near the close, it swung wildly again and finally settled at $13,516/mt, down 0.69%. Trading volume reached 23,700 lots and open interest stood at 270,300 lots, an increase of 1,898 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in bears' positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,470 yuan/mt, probed as high as 104,670 yuan/mt amid wild swings in early trading, after which the copper price center moved straight down and dipped to 103,800 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally settled at 104,010 yuan/mt, down 0.9%. Trading volume reached 43,400 lots and open interest stood at 180,500 lots, a decrease of 942 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease in bulls' positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On May 27 (Wednesday), Olivia Markham, a portfolio manager at BlackRock, said on Wednesday that the firm would support consolidation among large miners, as this would open the sector to retail investors at greater scale, making it easier to advance the large, complex projects needed for new supply. Speaking at the Australian Financial Review (AFR) conference in Perth, Markham said the mining industry faces a scale problem, particularly compared with other sectors such as technology. "When you talk to US retail investors, they want to invest in large, liquid stocks. Larger companies have easier access to capital, generally trade at higher valuation multiples, and I think in mining, larger companies also have the teams and talent capable of building all these complex projects," she said. "We've already seen a wave of M&A, but I think there's room for further development," she said.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of May 27, the SHFE copper 2606 contract traced an "M" shape, opening at 105,010 yuan/mt. After the open, prices edged up to 105,170 yuan/mt before declining, dipping to 104,850 yuan/mt, then stabilized and rebounded, probing as high as 105,290 yuan/mt. By the close, prices pulled back slightly, with a closing price of 105,030 yuan/mt. The month-on-month Contango spread ranged between 150 yuan/mt and 120 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 430 yuan/mt to a loss of 380 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, copper prices remain relatively high, downstream demand is weak, and overall procurement is dominated by just-in-time purchases. Procurement and sales sentiment has pulled back slightly for several consecutive sessions, and market trading is sluggish. From the market structure perspective, the month-on-month Contango spread is maintained around 150 yuan/mt, suppliers show strong willingness to hold positions for delivery, and intentions to hold prices firm have begun to emerge. During the day, some suppliers offered standard-quality copper with invoices dated this month at a discount of 120 yuan/mt. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount today, but with limited downside room.
(2) Guangdong: On May 27, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,090 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,985 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, month-end consumption was weak and suppliers cut prices to make shipments, but trading activity remained poor, with overall transactions sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On May 27, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $71/mt (price range $66-76/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $72/mt (price range $68-76/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $42/mt (price range $38-46/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in late May and early June.
(4) Secondary copper: On May 27 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 105,030 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were -75 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. On May 27, copper scrap prices rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.7, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.27. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,609 yuan/mt, up 19 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,320 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as reverse invoicing and the "rectification of invoicing economy" campaign continued, an increasing number of secondary copper rod enterprises reported insufficient input invoices, making it difficult to sustain production, with potential production cuts ahead. Meanwhile, procurement volumes at secondary copper rod enterprises were also significantly discounted.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Fed signaled it would keep interest rates steady, with the future policy path depending on inflation and employment data. On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran deal reached an impasse, with Trump refusing to make concessions and threatening to monitor the Strait of Hormuz. Coupled with a drone attack on Israel and South Korea summoning the Iranian ambassador over a ship attack, negotiation uncertainties continued to escalate, and copper prices fluctuated downward. Fundamentals side, supply of domestically produced copper edged up, with the tight spot cargo situation marginally improving; demand side, downstream enterprises continued to make just-in-time procurement, and market trading was sluggish. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue to move sideways today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]