[China Iron Ore Brief] Iron Ore Concentrates Prices May Be in the Doldrums Next Week

[Plate and Sheet]HRC Export Prices Cut 2-3 as Futures Break Support and Inquiries Slump HRC export prices were cut 2-3 USD/tonne today, and other flat products aside from medium plate also fell 2-3 USD/tonne day on day, with HRC dealt at 488-497 USD/tonne. Feedback shows medium plate export has held up well recently with relatively firm prices, while domestic futures broke below support today, leaving inquiry sentiment extremely bleak and the market largely on the sidelines. [Billet]Export Billet FOB at 462-464 as Basis Swings Nudge Prices Lower Export billet FOB was quoted at 462-464 USD/tonne today, down 1-2 USD/tonne on basis swings. Feedback shows both domestic and overseas billet prices declined to varying degrees, and with buyers holding a buy-on-rise-not-on-fall mindset, wait-and-see sentiment is strong and inquiries and trades were fairly ordinary. [Rebar]Rebar Export Prices Slip 1 as Low-Price Concessions Bring Small Forward Deals Rebar export prices slipped 1 USD/tonne today. According to trader feedback, some participants attempted low-price concession sales and a small number of forward orders were concluded, but overseas demand has yet to show a clear pickup and actual trades remain without notable improvement

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On July 1, the total daily HRC trading volume of SMM's sample enterprises in four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 11,360 mt, with day-on-day (-690 mt, -5.4%), calendar YoY (-15.73%), and lunar YoY (-12.75%) changes.

The most-traded HRC futures contract drifted lower today and closed at 3,285, down 0.79% for the day, falling below previous support. Spot HRC prices fell by 10-25 yuan/mt today, and spot cold-rolled coil prices declined by 10 yuan/mt. Supply side, this week’s impact from hot rolling maintenance was 63,100 mt, down 85,000 mt WoW; next week’s impact from maintenance is 23,100 mt, down 40,000 mt WoW from this week. Overall HRC production is expected to edge up. Demand side, end-users remain in the off-season, and the continued decline in futures led to poor speculative sentiment, with a sluggish overall market atmosphere. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there are market talks that the 10th round of increases will be launched on Friday. Hot metal output fell by 4,700 mt WoW this week, and cost-side support has weakened somewhat but has not collapsed yet. Looking ahead, contradictions in sheets & plates continue to accumulate. Inventory data released this week show that most cities continued to see inventory buildup, and downstream support remains weak. However, futures have already reached a relatively low level, so there is not expected to be much room for further pullback in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to steel mill maintenance.