Geopolitical Tensions Fluctuated Back and Forth, SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Market Review - Zinc Price Weekly Comment]

LME zinc: At the beginning of the week, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. On the macro front, the Middle East situation had not yet concluded, and market uncertainty persisted. However, the US dollar index retreated from highs, and combined with persistently low zinc ingot inventories outside China, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend. Subsequently, as expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes persisted, the US dollar index strengthened from lows, suppressing zinc price movements, and LME zinc edged down. Then, Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran had entered the final stage, and expectations for easing tensions warmed up, causing the US dollar index to soften and LME zinc to rebound from lows. However, US-Iran negotiations encountered new obstacles, market concerns resurfaced, suppressing non-ferrous metal movements, and LME zinc retreated from highs. Then, as inventories outside China continued to decline, LME zinc found strong bottom support and continued to rise. As of 15:00 this Wednesday, LME zinc was recorded at $2,555.5/mt, up $17/mt, a gain of 0.48%. SHFE zinc: At the beginning of the week, the zinc price center shifted downward. Subsequently, driven by higher LME prices, SHFE zinc rose. However, as China's zinc ingot inventory continued to increase, SHFE zinc's rise was hindered, maintaining a fluctuating trend. Then, although persistently weakening zinc concentrate TCs provided some support for zinc prices, as China gradually entered the traditional consumption off-season, zinc ingot consumption dragged down price movements to some extent, upward momentum for zinc prices was insufficient, and prices edged lower. Subsequently, easing Middle East tensions provided hope for the market, and SHFE zinc surged rapidly following LME. However, uncertainty in the situation, coupled with weakening domestic consumption, left SHFE zinc with insufficient bottom support, and it continued to decline. Then, driven by LME, SHFE zinc recovered some losses. As of 15:00 this Wednesday, SHFE zinc was recorded at 24,795 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.43%.