[SMM Analysis] China Redirects Prebaked Anode Exports to Southeast Asia & Europe Amid Middle East Turmoil

SMM May 20:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in April 2026 were 264,600 mt, up 71.73% YoY and up 33.69% MoM. The roughly calculated average export price of prebaked anode in April was approximately $862.52/mt, up 2.24% YoY and up 2.48% MoM. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative prebaked anode exports totaled 854,100 mt, up 15.95% YoY.

In terms of domestic export regions, prebaked anode exports in April 2026 were concentrated in Shandong, Hunan, and Jiangsu. Shandong led with exports of 195,800 mt, accounting for 74% of the total; followed by Jiangsu with exports of 28,600 mt, accounting for 11%; and then Hunan with exports of 20,100 mt, accounting for 8%.

In terms of export destinations, the main export countries for China's prebaked anode in April 2026 were Malaysia, Canada, and Norway, accounting for approximately 62% of total exports. Prebaked anode exports to Malaysia were approximately 64,900 mt, accounting for 25% of total exports, up 189.12% YoY; exports to Canada were approximately 61,900 mt, accounting for 23% of total exports, up 334.83% YoY; and exports to Norway were 37,600 mt, accounting for 14% of the total, up 117.17% YoY.

According to SMM, China's prebaked anode exports performed well from January to April 2026, with total exports up 15.95% YoY. The market structure exhibited notable characteristics of "Southeast Asia leading, Europe breaking through, and the Middle East contracting," with a clear trend of the export center shifting toward high-growth regions.

The Southeast Asian market, as the core engine, contributed incremental growth beyond expectations. Benefiting from concentrated aluminum capacity commissioning and production resumptions in the region, demand showed explosive growth: Malaysia, as the top export destination, saw cumulative exports from January to April grow 44.43% YoY; Indonesia's growth rate reached as high as 90.83%; and Vietnam achieved a breakthrough from zero. The combined incremental contribution from these three markets fully covered the total national export growth and effectively offset the decline pressure from other regions, becoming the key pillar supporting overall export performance.

The European market became the second growth curve, with high-end market share continuing to expand. Thanks to the improved competitiveness of China's high-end prebaked anode products, demand from Nordic countries such as Norway and Iceland remained robust, with cumulative exports from January to April growing 56.86% and 50.44% YoY, respectively; France and Spain saw cumulative exports from January to April surge 253.79% and 178.77% YoY, respectively, driving Europe's overall export volume to achieve over 50% significant growth and becoming an important source of export increments, with further strengthened pricing power in the high-end market.

Traditional Middle Eastern markets continued to contract, while emerging markets provided diversified support. Under the dual pressure of geopolitical conflicts and the expansion of local supporting capacity, cumulative exports from January to April to the four core markets of Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, and Bahrain all declined sharply YoY, with a combined drop exceeding 40%, significantly reducing their dependence on China's prebaked anode. Traditional markets such as Russia also experienced significant contraction, but high growth in emerging markets such as Azerbaijan and Angola provided new support for China's export diversification strategy.

Overall outlook: Through the strategic shift of order focus toward Southeast Asia and Europe, China's prebaked anode exports are expected to effectively mitigate the downside risks from the Middle Eastern market, with the market structure's risk resilience continuing to strengthen. Full-year exports in 2026 are expected to maintain robust growth, and regional diversification is expected to deepen further.