SMM News, May 15:
Metals market:
As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1.61%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.09%. SHFE lead declined 0.6%, SHFE zinc fell 0.24%. SHFE tin dropped 2.14%. SHFE nickel fell 1.82%.
In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 1.04%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.64%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.54%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 1.84%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.08%.
Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.8%, rebar fell 0.18%, hot-rolled coil declined 0.43%, and stainless steel fell 1.27%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.29%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 0.85%.
Overseas market base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals declined across the board. LME copper fell 1.46%. LME aluminum dropped 0.82%, LME lead declined 0.47%. LME zinc fell 0.91%. LME tin dropped 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.16%.
Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 1.5%, COMEX silver dropped 4.6%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.53%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 7.64%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 5.47%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 4.87%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.88%, closing at 2,519 points.
As of 11:46 on May 15, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:
Spot and fundamentals
Copper:Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 270 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,750 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,645 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...
Macro front
China:
[Preview: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 18 to introduce measures to strengthen and optimize departure tax refund policies and expand inbound consumption]The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on Monday, May 18, 2026. Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping, along with officials from the State Taxation Administration, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, will introduce measures to strengthen and optimize departure tax refund policies and expand inbound consumption, and answer questions from reporters. (State Council Information Office website)
[CAICT launches AI terminal intelligence grading tests to accelerate implementation of new national standards]Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Ministry of Commerce, and other departments jointly released the "AI Terminal Intelligence Grading" (GB/Z 177—2026) series of national standards, clearly defining the intelligence levels of AI terminals and laying a solid foundation for building a safe, orderly, and efficient AI terminal ecosystem. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) is one of the main drafting organizations of the series of standards, possessing complete testing qualifications and technical capabilities in product areas including smartphones, tablets, microcomputers, smart glasses, earphones, speakers, TVs, and automotive cockpits. The first round of AI terminal intelligence grading standard conformity testing has now been launched, and relevant enterprises are welcome to actively participate in testing to jointly promote the implementation of standards and help improve product intelligence levels. (CAICT)
[PBOC achieved zero injection and zero withdrawal today; net withdrawal of 51 billion yuan this week]The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, zero injection and zero withdrawal were achieved for the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 2.5 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As 53.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 51 billion yuan was achieved overall this week. (Jin10 Data)
US dollar:
As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.17% to 99.04. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that US retail sales continued to grow in April, but against the backdrop of rapidly rising energy prices, the market believed that the consumption data was partly influenced by inflation pushing up prices, and that actual consumption momentum may not have been as strong as the headline data suggested. Data showed that US retail sales rose 0.5% MoM in April, the lowest since January, in line with market expectations. The previously reported March figure was revised down to a gain of 1.6%. US consumer confidence had already fallen to a historic low in early May, and inflation growth exceeded wage growth for the first time in three years, raising market concerns that consumer spending may slow down significantly going forward.
Fed's Williams: Monetary policy is slightly restrictive. I do not see a reason to raise or cut interest rates right now. Fed Governor Barr: We are not in a recession, but job growth is weak. I have not decided what action to take at the June FOMC meeting. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in June was 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. (Jin10 Data)
Data:
Data to be released today include the US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China's April total electricity consumption YoY. Also watch: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams participates in a discussion; Fed Governor Barr speaks on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration publishes total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Fed Chairman Powell's term ends; US President Trump makes a state visit to China.
Crude oil:
As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1.36% and Brent up 1.29%. Middle East conflicts and uncertainty over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. US President Trump said: We don't need to open the Strait of Hormuz; we are working to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for regional countries.
India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed on May 14 that an Indian-flagged merchant vessel was attacked near the Omani coast in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, but all crew members were safe. The ministry expressed regret in a statement that merchant ships and seafarers continued to be targeted in attacks. However, the statement did not mention the specific name of the attacked vessel or the identity of the attackers, only stating that all Indian crew members on board were safe. UK-based Windward maritime analytics company said on social media on May 14 that an Indian-flagged cargo ship reportedly sank after a suspected drone attack in Omani waters near the Strait of Hormuz, and all crew members had been successfully rescued. (Xinhua)
According to retailers in Delhi on Friday, India raised gasoline and diesel prices by approximately 3 rupees per liter (about $0.03); this was the country's first fuel price hike in four years, aimed at partially offsetting losses incurred from surging global oil prices. Affected by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and severe shipping disruptions triggered by the Iran war, global oil prices once surged above $120 per barrel before pulling back to around $100-105 per barrel. Currently, the retail price of diesel in Delhi is 90.67 rupees per liter, and the retail price of gasoline is 97.77 rupees per liter. Three state-owned enterprises—Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation—collectively control over 90% of India's more than 103,000 fuel stations, and these three companies typically adjust diesel and gasoline retail prices in tandem. (Jin10 Data)
In addition, a Bank of Japan official said: Due to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prices of a wide range of commodities including oil and chemical products have risen. The YoY increase in wholesale prices in April was the largest since May 2023. (Jin10 Data)
Spot market overview:
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