Xinbo Shares Subsidiary to Invest 100M Yuan in New Energy Auto Parts Project

Futures: Based on futures data combined with technical indicators, the most-traded alumina 2609 contract moved sideways last night with shrinking volume. Prices fluctuated around 2,790 yuan/mt, with a high-low range of only 19 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 2,792 yuan/mt, basically flat with the opening price. Trading volume contracted significantly (down 111,000 lots), while open interest edged up by 4,060 lots, indicating that both bulls and bears were becoming cautious at current price levels, lacking willingness to take the initiative. On the technical side, MA5 (2,791) was basically aligned with the closing price, forming weak short-term support; MA10 (2,803.5), MA20 (2,835.15), and MA40 (2,822.43) were all in bearish alignment above the price, creating layers of resistance. Current prices were below all major moving averages, with the overall technical pattern leaning bearish. In the short term, prices are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 2,785–2,805 yuan/mt range, awaiting a directional breakout.

[Macro Tailwinds and Inventory Pressure Coexist, Limiting Upside Room for Aluminum Prices] Current macro tailwinds are being released in a concentrated manner, the global rigid supply gap for aluminum has been confirmed, and China’s aluminum ingot inventory has entered initial destocking. Multiple positive factors are providing support for aluminum prices. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing a sharp price surge. In addition, spot market trading has been relatively weak, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes this year have been heating up, further limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether China’s aluminum ingot inventory can maintain sustained destocking, thereby easing the pressure that inventory at high levels exerts on aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Dual Pressure from Policy and Demand, Secondary Aluminum Weekly Operating Rate Pulls Back] ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. On the cost side, high-level support, combined with the tightening of reverse invoicing and expectations for production cuts at some enterprises, limits the downside room for prices; however, demand is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term, and inventory remains in an accumulation cycle, which will continue to suppress upside room for prices. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the recovery of end-use consumption and the further impact of policies on the scale of production cuts on the supply side.