SHFE Lead 2605 Contract Entered Delivery This Week, Rising Lead Ingot Visible Inventory Weighed on Lead Prices [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,977/mt, touched a low of $1,970.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating upward; entering the European session, the upward momentum remained strong, reaching a high of $1,990/mt at the close, and finally settled at $1,988.5/mt, up 0.56%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt, touched a high of 16,710 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to probe a low of 16,590 yuan/mt, rebounded slightly at the close, and finally settled at 16,655 yuan/mt, down 0.12%, marking a four-day losing streak.

On the macro front:

Trump sought to suspend the federal gasoline tax, with senators responding by proposing a bill to suspend fuel taxes for 90 days. Peru, the world's third-largest silver producer and ninth-largest gold producer, issued an emergency decree on the energy crisis. Trump will pay a state visit to China from May 13 to 15. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): China's consumer price index rose 1.2% YoY in April 2026. The central bank released the Q1 2026 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, proposing to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy and noting that the impact of external imported inflation on domestic economic operations requires close attention.

:

SHFE lead maintained weak consolidation, with suppliers offering limited quotations, some still shipping at small premiums, while primary lead smelters had more cargoes self-picked up from production sites, with mainstream production areas quoting at premiums of -20 to +50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price for ex-factory delivery. For secondary lead, regional supply differences persisted, with smelters showing significant divergence in shipments, and secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -50 to +25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price for ex-factory delivery. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some purchasing on dips, but most primarily relied on long-term contracts, and spot order market transactions showed no obvious improvement.

Inventory: On May 11, LME lead inventory increased by 150 mt to 265,925 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt MoM.

Today's lead price forecast:

This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract entered delivery, with suppliers increasing shipments to delivery warehouses, and lead ingots will be transferred from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The accumulation of visible inventory of lead ingots will continue to drag down lead price trends. Meanwhile, concentrated production cuts and suspensions by secondary lead enterprises have become the main force of supply reduction this month, coupled with factors such as the closure of import windows and secondary lead losses providing support. After delivery factors are resolved, lead price movements will need to await the emergence of new influencing factors.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.