NPI Market Stagnant at High Levels, Supply-Demand Divergence Persists

Chinese Taiwan's upstream mills including Yusco and Tang Eng repeatedly raised stainless steel prices in H1 2026, supported by a nickel price rebound and Indonesian supply policies. However, momentum is fading as downstream processors and distributors report sluggish orders and difficulty passing costs on to end customers, with buyers adopting a cautious, hand-to-mouth purchasing approach. For H2, analysts see prices caught between a firm cost floor, underpinned by Indonesian refined nickel capacity and Asian billet prices, and a demand ceiling where EU CBAM levies and a disappointing global manufacturing recovery are suppressing export orders. A mild restocking pickup is possible around October as seasonal demand improves, but mill-buyer price negotiations are expected to remain tense throughout the period.

Japan plans to impose provisional anti-dumping duties from July on nickel-based cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from Chinese Taiwan, Chinese Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs stated on June 22 that overall export damage is limited: China Steel Corporation does not produce the investigated products; leading exporter Yusco secured the lowest rate of 3.86%, preserving its competitive position; and Walsin Lihwa primarily exports non-investigated products to Japan. Domestic mills note that Japan represents a minor share of Chinese Taiwan's total stainless steel exports. Government officials have pledged to maintain dialogue with Japanese counterparts and support local industries in adopting AI and low-carbon technologies.

On June 24, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell by 2,150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with premiums for mainstream Chinese electrodeposited nickel brands in the range of -500-400 yuan/mt.