SMM May 9:
The rare earth market in April, especially in terms of oxides, generally showed a trend of rising prices and declining volumes. Specifically: Pr-Nd oxide saw a price increase of 7.07% in April, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide both edged up in April. Affected by supply disruptions in the recycling segment, rare earth oxide production all contracted MoM in April. On the foreign trade front: according to data from the General Administration of Customs, rare earth import and export data in the first four months both grew YoY. Since entering May, downstream demand has shown no improvement, market inquiry enthusiasm has been low, and prices of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide have generally moved lower. Currently, the tight rare earth supply pattern is unlikely to improve in the short term, and whether downstream demand can recover and whether foreign trade exports can remain strong will influence the direction of the rare earth market going forward.
Pr-Nd Oxide Rose 7.07% in April; Dysprosium Oxide and Terbium Oxide Edged Up Slightly in April
Light rare earth prices:Taking the historical price trend of Pr-Nd oxide as an example, according to SMM quotes: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on April 30 was 772,500 yuan/mt, compared with 721,500 yuan/mt on March 31, representing an increase of 51,000 yuan/mt in April, with a monthly gain of 7.07%. Entering May, Pr-Nd oxide was generally in a pullback trend, and on May 8, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 757,500 yuan/mt.
Medium-heavy rare earth prices:Taking the trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM quotes: the average price of dysprosium oxide on April 30 was 1,375 yuan/kg, compared with 1,365 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 10 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.73%. Entering May, dysprosium oxide prices pulled back, with the average price on May 8 at 1,340 yuan/kg.
Taking the trend of terbium oxide as an example, according to SMM quotes: the average price of terbium oxide on April 30 was 6,125 yuan/kg, compared with 6,080 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 45 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.74%. Entering May, terbium oxide prices declined, and as of May 8, the average price edged down slightly to 6,110 yuan/kg.
Pr-Nd Oxide and Medium-Heavy Rare Earth Production Both Declined MoM in April
Production:
Pr-Nd oxide: Pr-Nd oxide production contracted MoM in April. Affected by the dual factors of equipment maintenance and insufficient raw material inventory, recycled Pr-Nd oxide output saw a notable contraction. Meanwhile, some raw ore separation enterprises also experienced production shutdowns, further exacerbating the tightening on the supply side. The simultaneous contraction on both the raw ore side and the recycling side led to a relatively notable MoM decline in Pr-Nd oxide supply in April.
Medium-heavy rare earth oxides:In April, medium-heavy rare earth production also saw a slight MoM reduction. Among them, ion-adsorption ore separation enterprises maintained relatively stable overall operating conditions, with no significant fluctuations in production pace. However, production cuts at scrap recycling enterprises dragged down the overall output level of medium-heavy rare earth oxides. As scrap recycling accounts for a certain proportion in the medium-heavy rare earth supply system, production cuts in this segment affected total monthly production, resulting in a slight MoM decline in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production.
Imports and exports:
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's rare earth exports in April totaled 5,308.6 mt, up 10.9% YoY; cumulative rare earth exports from January to April reached 19,887.6 mt, up 4.9% YoY. China's rare earth imports in April totaled 8,780.7 mt, down 30.44% YoY; cumulative rare earth imports from January to April reached 40,857.8 mt, up 9.5% YoY.
Outlook
Regarding the outlook for rare earths, supply side, after oxide production contracted in April, the market largely expects further reductions in May, with the supply side continuing to provide certain support for rare earth prices. Demand side, before any notable improvement in downstream demand materializes, the weak demand landscape is expected to continue suppressing rare earth market performance. However, from customs export data, the 10.9% YoY growth in rare earth exports in April provided certain external demand support for rare earth prices. If rare earth export data continues to grow in May, it is expected to further boost market confidence. In addition, China and the US are currently maintaining communication regarding Trump's planned visit to China in mid-May. If this summit proceeds smoothly, the two sides may exchange views on topics such as trade and critical minerals supply chain stability. Given the US's concerns over rare earth supply chain security, if pragmatic progress is achieved in relevant communications, it could bring marginal improvement expectations for the rare earth export environment. However, the impact still needs to be cautiously assessed in conjunction with actual summit outcomes and subsequent policy developments. Overall, in the short term, the rare earth market will continue to seek direction amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers across the supply chain, and changes in external demand as well as progress in China-US trade communications warrant continued attention.
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