[China Iron Ore Brief] China Iron Ore Concentrates Prices May Fluctuate at Highs Next Week

[EU] European HRC buyers largely paused new bookings while waiting for clearer details on the EU’s upcoming import quota allocation system. Transactions in Northern Europe were reported at €670-690/t ex-works for July-August delivery, while Italian domestic offers remained around €700/t delivered. Downstream demand stayed weak amid high inventories across ports and supply chains. Import offers remained limited and mostly uncompetitive as Asian mills resumed operations with higher prices, narrowing the gap between domestic EU prices and import costs after including CBAM expenses.

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

Zhangjiagang HRC port inventories stood at 316,000 mt this week, down 5,000 mt WoW, a decline of 1.56%; the YoY decline was 19.80% on a solar calendar basis and 22.93% on a lunar calendar basis.