[SMM Analysis] Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Divergence: Futures Rose to 200,000, Spot Lithium Carbonate Transactions Remained Sluggish

Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate price continued to rise from the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened high today at 199,000 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back after opening, fluctuating downward to the intraday low of 193,400 yuan/mt in the morning session; it then stabilized and rebounded, with bulls increasing open interest around midday to push the price rapidly through the 200,000 yuan/mt level, reaching a high of 200,400 yuan/mt; it fluctuated at highs in the afternoon session, pulling back slightly to 199,100 yuan/mt at the close, up 1.52%, with open interest increasing by 6,542 lots.

In the spot market, downstream maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance with weak purchase sentiment, showing limited acceptance of lithium carbonate prices above 190,000 yuan/mt; upstream spot order shipments also slowed down, as poor downstream purchasing led to inventory buildup at traders, weakening their willingness to purchase from upstream sources. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were sluggish, with the futures-spot divergence pattern continuing. Today's price retreat after rapid rise, with the 200,000 yuan/mt level gained and then lost, was attributed not only to bulls taking profits after earlier rapid gains, but also to market concerns about downstream's ability to absorb high prices — although futures briefly broke through 200,000 yuan/mt, spot transactions did not increase in tandem. In the short term, Q2 lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend.

This week, lithium carbonate production declined slightly, mainly due to maintenance at some spodumene-based enterprises' production lines, while production from other raw material sources remained stable with slight growth. From market transactions and inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants' spot order shipments slowed down slightly, downstream and traders' purchase willingness weakened, and combined with long-term contract deliveries gradually commencing, inventory showed a slight destocking trend this week. Downstream material plants side, as prices rose significantly, spot order purchase willingness remained weak, with consumption mainly relying on earlier inventory and long-term contract and customer-supplied materials delivered at the beginning of the month. At the trader level, inventory continued to accumulate due to poor downstream purchasing.